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The Option Value of Patent Litigation: Theory and Evidence

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Abstract

In this paper I present a real options model of patent litigation when patents are not perfectly enforceable. I consider both finite horizon and infinite horizon models. The theoretical results demonstrate that patent value depends not only on the underlying technology, but also on the degree of uncertainty over the property right. Additionally, uncertain property rights create an effective patent term that is less than the statutory term. Using simulation methods and patent data, I estimate the hazard rate of patent litigation. I find that, contrary to previous results, the most valuable patents are not the primary candidates for litigation.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco, Alan, 2001. "The Option Value of Patent Litigation: Theory and Evidence," Vassar College Department of Economics Working Paper Series 52, Vassar College Department of Economics, revised Dec 2003.
    • Handle: RePEc:vas:papers:52
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    Cited by:

    1. Bernhard Ganglmair & Christian Helmers & Brian J Love, 2022. "The Effect of Patent Litigation Insurance: Theory and Evidence from NPEs [“Valuable Patents]," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(3), pages 741-773.
    2. Qi Duan & Yupeng Shi & Jingwei Sun, 2017. "Intellectual Property Protection: Prevention in Advance or Punishment Afterward," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 18(1), pages 129-171, May.
    3. Gupeng, Zhang & Xiangdong, Chen, 2012. "The value of invention patents in China: Country origin and technology field differences," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 357-370.
    4. Mohd Shadab Danish & Pritam Ranjan & Ruchi Sharma, 2022. "Assessing the Impact of Patent Attributes on the Value of Discrete and Complex Innovations," Papers 2208.07222, arXiv.org.
    5. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:11:y:2007:i:1:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Su, Hsin-Ning, 2017. "Collaborative and Legal Dynamics of International R&D- Evolving Patterns in East Asia," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 217-227.
    7. Jeon, Haejun, 2015. "Patent infringement, litigation, and settlement," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 99-111.
    8. Zhang, Gupeng & Lv, Xiaofeng & Zhou, Jianghua, 2014. "Private value of patent right and patent infringement: An empirical study based on patent renewal data of China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 37-54.
    9. Jeon, Haejun & Nishihara, Michi, 2018. "Optimal patent policy in the presence of vertical separation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(2), pages 682-697.
    10. Lee, Pei-Chun & Su, Hsin-Ning, 2014. "How to forecast cross-border patent infringement? — The case of U.S. international trade," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 125-131.
    11. Raffaele Oriani & Luigi Sereno, 2011. "Advanced Valuation Methods: The Real Options Approach," Chapters, in: Federico Munari & Raffaele Oriani (ed.), The Economic Valuation of Patents, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Emmanuel Dechenaux & Brent Goldfarb & Scott Shane & Marie Thursby, 2008. "Appropriability and Commercialization: Evidence from MIT Inventions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(5), pages 893-906, May.
    13. Bessen, James, 2008. "The value of U.S. patents by owner and patent characteristics," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 932-945, June.
    14. Chi Leung & Yue Kwok, 2011. "Real options game analysis of sleeping patents," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 34(1), pages 41-65, May.
    15. Marco, Alan C., 2007. "The dynamics of patent citations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 290-296, February.
    16. Mohd Shadab Danish & Pritam Ranjan & Ruchi Sharma, 2021. "Identification of “Valuable” Technologies via Patent Statistics in India: An Analysis Based on Renewal Information," BASE University Working Papers 13/2021, BASE University, Bengaluru, India.
    17. H. Kent Baker & Satish Kumar & Debidutta Pattnaik, 2020. "Twenty‐five years of Review of Financial Economics: A bibliometric overview," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(1), pages 3-23, January.
    18. Philipp N. Baecker, 2007. "Real Options and Intellectual Property," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-540-48264-2, October.
    19. Federico Munari & Maurizio Sobrero, 2011. "Economic and Management Perspectives on the Value of Patents," Chapters, in: Federico Munari & Raffaele Oriani (ed.), The Economic Valuation of Patents, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Hsin-Ning Su, 2017. "Global Interdependence of Collaborative R&D-Typology and Association of International Co-Patenting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-28, April.
    21. Hsin-Ning Su & Carey Ming-Li Chen & Pei-Chun Lee, 2012. "Patent litigation precaution method: analyzing characteristics of US litigated and non-litigated patents from 1976 to 2010," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 92(1), pages 181-195, July.

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