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Takeover Bids, Share Prices, and the Expected Value Hypothesis

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  • Elaine Hutson

    (Department of Accounting and Finance, Monash University)

  • Graham Partington

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between the price bid for a takeover target, the probability of the bid suceeding and the target's price over the course of the bid. We test and reject Samuelson and Rosenthal's (1986) expected value hypothesis. We find that over the bid, the price of the target of a successful bid typically rises towards the bid price, but is not observed to converge with the bid price. The lack of observed convergence appears to be due to an early cessation of trading in many of the bids that succeed. In the case of bids that fail, the target's share price is typically observed to rise above the bid price early in the bid. We consider several explanations for this, and suggest that the expectation of a subsequent bid is the most plausible explanation. This is supported by our empirical evidence. We also find that in the cases where the bid fails, early cessation of trading did not occur in the majority of cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Elaine Hutson & Graham Partington, 1994. "Takeover Bids, Share Prices, and the Expected Value Hypothesis," Working Paper Series 36, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:wpaper:36
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    File URL: http://www.finance.uts.edu.au/research/wpapers/wp36.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Terry S. Walter, 1984. "Australian Takeovers: Capital Market Efficiency and Shareholder Risk and Return," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 9(1), pages 63-118, June.
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    3. Jensen, Michael C. & Ruback, Richard S., 1983. "The market for corporate control : The scientific evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-4), pages 5-50, April.
    4. Samuelson, William & Rosenthal, Leonard, 1986. "Price Movements as Indicators of Tender Offer Success," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(2), pages 481-499, June.
    5. Bhagat, Sanjai & Brickley, James A & Loewenstein, Uri, 1987. "The Pricing Effects of Interfirm Cash Tender Offers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(4), pages 965-986, September.
    6. Dodd, Peter & Ruback, Richard, 1977. "Tender offers and stockholder returns : An empirical analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 351-373, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anthony Ravi & Peter Mayall & John Simpson, 2012. "Takeover Probabilities and the Opportunities for Hedge Funds and Hedge Fund Replication to Produce Abnormal Gains," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Greg N. Gregoriou & Maher Kooli (ed.), Hedge Fund Replication, chapter 4, pages 48-60, Palgrave Macmillan.

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