IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/usn/usnawp/61.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Rise of the Machines Redux – Education, Technological Transition and Long-run Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmed S. Rahman

    (United States Naval Academy)

Abstract

We develop a growth model with over-lapping generations that endogenizes skill acquisition and two forms of technical change, one that automates existing production processes, and one that invents new production processes. The former kind of technological change obso- letes certain middle-range skills; the latter has the potential to increase such skills. This work suggests that 1) early industrialization generates greater automation; 2) employment polarization caused by automation also fosters education polarization, potentially affecting future growth; 3) the economy naturally transitions from automation to innovation; and 4) such a transition today will lessen wage inequality but may not bring back mid-skilled jobs as it had historically.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed S. Rahman, 2017. "Rise of the Machines Redux – Education, Technological Transition and Long-run Growth," Departmental Working Papers 61, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:usn:usnawp:61
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.usna.edu/EconDept/RePEc/usn/wp/usnawp61.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. McCleary, Rachel & Barro, Robert, 2003. "Religion and Economic Growth across Countries," Scholarly Articles 3708464, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    2. Stephen Redding, 2002. "Path Dependence, Endogenous Innovation, and Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(4), pages 1215-1248, November.
    3. Edward Glaeser & Giacomo Ponzetto & Andrei Shleifer, 2007. "Why does democracy need education?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 77-99, June.
    4. Jovanovic, Boyan & Nyarko, Yaw, 1996. "Learning by Doing and the Choice of Technology," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1299-1310, November.
    5. Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2012. "Economic Growth with Bubbles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 3033-3058, October.
    6. Jones, Charles I & Williams, John C, 2000. "Too Much of a Good Thing? The Economics of Investment in R&D," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 65-85, March.
    7. David Hémous & Morten Olsen, 2022. "The Rise of the Machines: Automation, Horizontal Innovation, and Income Inequality," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 179-223, January.
    8. Robert J. Gordon, 2000. "Does the "New Economy" Measure Up to the Great Inventions of the Past?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 49-74, Fall.
    9. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    10. Rahman, Ahmed S., 2013. "The Road Not Taken: What Is The “Appropriate” Path To Development When Growth Is Unbalanced?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 747-778, June.
    11. B. Zorina Khan, 2015. "Knowledge, Human Capital and Economic Development: Evidence from the British Industrial Revolution, 1750-1930," NBER Working Papers 20853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Galor, Oded, 2005. "From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 171-293, Elsevier.
    13. Jeffrey Lin, 2011. "Technological Adaptation, Cities, and New Work," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 554-574, May.
    14. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1994. "Growth and Unemployment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(3), pages 477-494.
    15. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2003. "Economic Growth, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262025531, April.
    16. Josh Kinsler & Ronni Pavan, 2015. "The Specificity of General Human Capital: Evidence from College Major Choice," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(4), pages 933-972.
    17. Oded Galor, 2011. "Unified Growth Theory and Comparative Development," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 2, pages 9-21, April-Jun.
    18. Young, Alwyn, 1993. "Invention and Bounded Learning by Doing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 443-472, June.
    19. Allen,Robert C., 2009. "The British Industrial Revolution in Global Perspective," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521868273, October.
    20. Daron Acemoglu & Joshua Linn, 2004. "Market Size in Innovation: Theory and Evidence from the Pharmaceutical Industry," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(3), pages 1049-1090.
    21. Debraj Ray, 2010. "Uneven Growth: A Framework for Research in Development Economics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(3), pages 45-60, Summer.
    22. Joao Guerreiro & Sergio Rebelo & Pedro Teles, 2022. "Should Robots Be Taxed?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(1), pages 279-311.
    23. Alwyn Young, 1991. "Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 3577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Marcus Scheiblecker & et al., 2003. "Österreichs Wirtschaft im Jahr 2002: Neuerlich ungenügendes Wachstum," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 76(4), pages 257-323, April.
    25. Daron Acemoglu, 1998. "Why Do New Technologies Complement Skills? Directed Technical Change and Wage Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(4), pages 1055-1089.
    26. Acemoglu, Daron & Autor, David, 2011. "Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 12, pages 1043-1171, Elsevier.
    27. Robert J. Barro & Rachel McCleary, 2003. "Religion and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 9682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Weiss, Matthias, 2008. "Skill-biased technological change: Is there hope for the unskilled?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 439-441, September.
    29. Mitch, David, 1983. "The Spread of Literacy in Nineteenth-Century England," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 287-288, March.
    30. T. S. Ashton, 1948. "Some Statistics of the Industrial Revolution in Britain1," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 16(2), pages 214-234, May.
    31. Munger Michael C., 2012. "Basic Income Is Not an Obligation, But It Might Be a Legitimate Choice," Basic Income Studies, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-13, January.
    32. Alwyn Young, 1991. "Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 369-405.
    33. Oded Galor, 2011. "Unified Growth Theory," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9477.
    34. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-784, August.
    35. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
    36. Jan De Loecker & Jan Eeckhout & Gabriel Unger, 2020. "The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomic Implications [“Econometric Tools for Analyzing Market Outcomes”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(2), pages 561-644.
    37. Robert J. Barro, 2003. "Determinants of Economic Growth in a Panel of Countries," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 4(2), pages 231-274, November.
    38. Gregory Clark, 2007. "Introduction to A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World," Introductory Chapters, in: A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World, Princeton University Press.
    39. Kevin O’Rourke & Ahmed Rahman & Alan Taylor, 2013. "Luddites, the industrial revolution, and the demographic transition," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 373-409, December.
    40. Cinnirella, Francesco, 2008. "Optimists or pessimists? A reconsideration of nutritional status in Britain, 1740–1865," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 325-354, December.
    41. Xavier Sala-i-Martín & Elsa V. Artadi, 2003. "Economic growth and investment in the Arab world," Economics Working Papers 683, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    42. Jonathan Temple, 2003. "The Long‐Run implications of Growth Theories," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 497-510, July.
    43. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jerzmanowski, Michal & Tamura, Robert, 2019. "Directed technological change & cross-country income differences: A quantitative analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    2. Growiec, Jakub & McAdam, Peter & Mućk, Jakub, 2018. "Endogenous labor share cycles: Theory and evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 74-93.
    3. Yibai Yang, 2018. "On the Optimality of IPR Protection with Blocking Patents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 27, pages 205-230, January.
    4. William A. Barnett & Taniya Ghosh, 2014. "Stability analysis of Uzawa–Lucas endogenous growth model," Economic Theory Bulletin, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 2(1), pages 33-44, April.
    5. Duranton, Gilles, 2006. "Some foundations for Zipf's law: Product proliferation and local spillovers," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 542-563, July.
    6. Antonio Ruíz Porras & Guillermo Rosales Jaramillo, 2014. "Crecimiento económico, banca y desarrollo financiero: evidencia internacional," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 29(2), pages 263-300.
    7. Ali, Amjad & Ur Rehman, Hafeez, 2015. "Macroeconomic Instability and Its Impact on Gross Domestic Product: An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 71037, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Horii, Ryo, 2012. "Wants and past knowledge: Growth cycles with emerging industries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 220-238.
    9. Ghiglino, Christian & Tabasso, Nicole, 2016. "Risk aversion in a model of endogenous growth," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 30-40.
    10. Kevin H. O'Rourke & Ahmed S. Rahman & Alan M. Taylor, 2008. "Luddites and the Demographic Transition," NBER Working Papers 14484, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Mariusz Prochniak & Katarzyna Wasiak, 2017. "The impact of the financial system on economic growth in the context of the global crisis: empirical evidence for the EU and OECD countries," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(2), pages 295-337, May.
    12. George M. Agiomirgianakis & George Sfakianakis & Fotini Voulgaris, 2016. "Determinants of economic growth revisited: is competitiveness and investment the solution for Greece?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 359-367, July.
    13. Le, Thanh, 2011. "Do government policies affect growth? Examining a model with R&D and factor accumulation," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 62-70, March.
    14. repec:nbp:nbpbik:v:47:y:2016:i:6:p:463-494 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Wang, Min, 2010. "Essays on Environment, Natural Resource, Growth and Development," ISU General Staff Papers 201001010800002824, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    16. Kawalec Paweł, 2020. "The dynamics of theories of economic growth: An impact of Unified Growth Theory," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 6(2), pages 19-44, June.
    17. Rajeev K. Goel & James W. Saunoris & Friedrich Schneider, 2019. "Growth In The Shadows: Effect Of The Shadow Economy On U.S. Economic Growth Over More Than A Century," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(1), pages 50-67, January.
    18. Collins, Ross D. & Selin, Noelle E. & de Weck, Olivier L. & Clark, William C., 2017. "Using inclusive wealth for policy evaluation: Application to electricity infrastructure planning in oil-exporting countries," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 23-34.
    19. Stephen Kinsella, 2009. "Preference Falsification in Teaching," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 6(3), pages 352-358, September.
    20. Kul Luintel & Mosahid Khan & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2014. "On the robustness of R&D," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 137-155, October.
    21. Gabrovski, Miroslav, 2023. "Coordination frictions and economic growth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(6), pages 1528-1548, September.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:usn:usnawp:61. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ednavus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.