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Aggregation of Experts Opinions and the Assessment of Tipping Points. Catastrophic Forecasts for Higher Temperature Changes

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  • Marcello Basili
  • Federico Crudu

Abstract

This paper assesses the probability of occurrence of tipping points conditional on a given temperature scenario by combining probability intervals from elicited experts opinions using the data of Kriegler et al. (2009). The computation of such conditional probabilities is based on the aggregation of imprecise probability judgments through the Steiner point. In addition, the probability of a tipping point can be updated via the standard Bayes rule to generate tipping point scenarios. Our results suggest that tipping events may happen with relatively large probabilities, in contrast with the view that tipping points are low-probability-high-impact events.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcello Basili & Federico Crudu, 2021. "Aggregation of Experts Opinions and the Assessment of Tipping Points. Catastrophic Forecasts for Higher Temperature Changes," Department of Economics University of Siena 868, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    • Handle: RePEc:usi:wpaper:868
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    File URL: http://repec.deps.unisi.it/quaderni/868.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marcello Basili & Alain Chateauneuf, 2020. "Aggregation of experts' opinions and conditional consensus opinion by the Steiner point," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-03260206, HAL.
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    4. Marcello Basili & Alain Chateauneuf, 2011. "Extreme events and entropy: A multiple quantile utility model," Post-Print hal-00685405, HAL.
    5. Garthwaite, Paul H. & Kadane, Joseph B. & O'Hagan, Anthony, 2005. "Statistical Methods for Eliciting Probability Distributions," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 680-701, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian updating; aggregation; global warming; judgmental forecasting; Steiner point; tipping points;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General

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