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Aggregation of experts' opinions and conditional consensus opinion by the Steiner point

Author

Listed:
  • Marcello Basili

    (DEPS - Dipartimento di Economia Politica e Statistica - UNISI - Università degli Studi di Siena = University of Siena)

  • Alain Chateauneuf

    (IPAG Business School, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

This paper considers the issue of aggregation of experts' opinions expressed through not necessarily independent and even conflicting probability distributions or multiple priors. The paper addresses the elicitation of the consensus distribution by introducing the Steiner point of the set of all common distributions among experts and derives its conditional probabilities on future events.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcello Basili & Alain Chateauneuf, 2020. "Aggregation of experts' opinions and conditional consensus opinion by the Steiner point," Post-Print hal-03260206, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03260206
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijar.2020.04.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Koundouri, Phoebe & Papayiannis, Georgios I. & Petracou, Electra V. & Yannacopoulos, Athanasios N., 2023. "Consensus group decision making under model uncertainty with a view towards environmental policy making," MPRA Paper 122006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Gayer, Gabrielle & Lehrer, Ehud & Persitz, Dotan, 2024. "Aggregating inconclusive data sets," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 77-90.
    3. Jean-Marc Bonnisseau & Alain Chateauneuf & Jean-Pierre Drugeon, 2023. "On Future Allocations of Scarce Resources without Explicit Discounting Factors," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 23004, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    4. Marcello Basili & Federico Crudu, 2021. "Aggregation of Experts Opinions and the Assessment of Tipping Points. Catastrophic Forecasts for Higher Temperature Changes," Department of Economics University of Siena 868, Department of Economics, University of Siena.

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