IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v27y2007i4p961-978.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling External Risks in Project Management

Author

Listed:
  • Jesus Palomo
  • David Rios Insua
  • Fabrizio Ruggeri

Abstract

To ascertain the viability of a project, undertake resource allocation, take part in bidding processes, and other related decisions, modern project management requires forecasting techniques for cost, duration, and performance of a project, not only under normal circumstances, but also under external events that might abruptly change the status quo. We provide a Bayesian framework that provides a global forecast of a project's performance. We aim at predicting the probabilities and impacts of a set of potential scenarios caused by combinations of disruptive events, and using this information to deal with project management issues. To introduce the methodology, we focus on a project's cost, but the ideas equally apply to project duration or performance forecasting. We illustrate our approach with an example based on a real case study involving estimation of the uncertainty in project cost while bidding for a contract.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesus Palomo & David Rios Insua & Fabrizio Ruggeri, 2007. "Modeling External Risks in Project Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(4), pages 961-978, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:27:y:2007:i:4:p:961-978
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00935.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00935.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00935.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. C Chapman & S Ward, 2003. "Constructively simple estimating: a project management example," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 54(10), pages 1050-1058, October.
    2. Bier, Vicki M. & Yi, Woojune, 1995. "A Bayesian method for analyzing dependencies in precursor data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 25-41, March.
    3. Yoram Wind & Thomas L. Saaty, 1980. "Marketing Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(7), pages 641-658, July.
    4. Robert T. Clemen & Gregory W. Fischer & Robert L. Winkler, 2000. "Assessing Dependence: Some Experimental Results," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(8), pages 1100-1115, August.
    5. Robert T. Clemen & Robert L. Winkler, 1999. "Combining Probability Distributions From Experts in Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(2), pages 187-203, April.
    6. Adam J. Hatfield & Keith W. Hipel, 2002. "Risk and Systems Theory," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(6), pages 1043-1057, December.
    7. Garthwaite, Paul H. & Kadane, Joseph B. & O'Hagan, Anthony, 2005. "Statistical Methods for Eliciting Probability Distributions," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 680-701, June.
    8. Robert T. Clemen & Terence Reilly, 1999. "Correlations and Copulas for Decision and Risk Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(2), pages 208-224, February.
    9. Yacov Y. Haimes & Stan Kaplan & James H. Lambert, 2002. "Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management Framework Using Hierarchical Holographic Modeling," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(2), pages 383-397, April.
    10. Yacov Y. Haimes, 1991. "Total Risk Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(2), pages 169-171, June.
    11. Mauro Gasparini & Gabriella Margaria & Henry P. Wynn, 2004. "Dynamic risk control for project development," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 13(1), pages 73-88, April.
    12. Robin L. Dillon & M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell & Seth D. Guikema, 2003. "Programmatic Risk Analysis for Critical Engineering Systems Under Tight Resource Constraints," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 51(3), pages 354-370, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Plischke, Elmar & Borgonovo, Emanuele, 2019. "Copula theory and probabilistic sensitivity analysis: Is there a connection?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(3), pages 1046-1059.
    2. Antonio Pievatolo & Fabrizio Ruggeri & Refik Soyer & Simon Wilson, 2021. "Decisions in Risk and Reliability: An Explanatory Perspective," Stats, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-23, March.
    3. Nuno Marques de Almeida & Maria João Falcão Silva & Filipa Salvado & Hugo Rodrigues & Damjan Maletič, 2021. "Risk-Informed Performance-Based Metrics for Evaluating the Structural Safety and Serviceability of Constructed Assets against Natural Disasters," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-21, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. James K. Hammitt & Yifan Zhang, 2013. "Combining Experts’ Judgments: Comparison of Algorithmic Methods Using Synthetic Data," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(1), pages 109-120, January.
    2. Abhinav B. Agrawal & Kash Barker & Yacov Y. Haimes, 2011. "Adaptive multiplayer approach for risk‐based decision‐making: 2006 Virginia Gubernatorial Inauguration," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 455-470, December.
    3. Werner, Christoph & Bedford, Tim & Cooke, Roger M. & Hanea, Anca M. & Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo, 2017. "Expert judgement for dependence in probabilistic modelling: A systematic literature review and future research directions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(3), pages 801-819.
    4. M. F. Leung & J. R. Santos & Y. Y. Haimes, 2003. "Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management of Lahar Flow Threat," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(6), pages 1323-1335, December.
    5. Edouard Kujawski & Mariana L. Alvaro & William R. Edwards, 2004. "Incorporating psychological influences in probabilistic cost analysis," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(3), pages 195-216.
    6. Avner Engel & Shalom Shachar, 2006. "Measuring and optimizing systems' quality costs and project duration," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 9(3), pages 259-280, September.
    7. Tianyang Wang & James S. Dyer & Warren J. Hahn, 2017. "Sensitivity analysis of decision making under dependent uncertainties using copulas," EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 5(1), pages 117-139, November.
    8. Matthew H. Henry & Yacov Y. Haimes, 2009. "A Comprehensive Network Security Risk Model for Process Control Networks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(2), pages 223-248, February.
    9. Donald L. Keefer & Craig W. Kirkwood & James L. Corner, 2004. "Perspective on Decision Analysis Applications, 1990–2001," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 1(1), pages 4-22, March.
    10. Robert L. Winkler & Robert T. Clemen, 2004. "Multiple Experts vs. Multiple Methods: Combining Correlation Assessments," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 1(3), pages 167-176, September.
    11. Wang, Fan & Li, Heng & Dong, Chao & Ding, Lieyun, 2019. "Knowledge representation using non-parametric Bayesian networks for tunneling risk analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    12. Jason R. W. Merrick, 2008. "Getting the Right Mix of Experts," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(1), pages 43-52, March.
    13. Yacov Y. Haimes & Alfred Anderegg, 2015. "Sequential Pareto‐Optimal Decisions Made During Emergent Complex Systems of Systems: An Application to the FAA NextGen," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(1), pages 28-44, January.
    14. Jalal Ali & Joost R. Santos, 2015. "Modeling the Ripple Effects of IT‐Based Incidents on Interdependent Economic Systems," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(2), pages 146-161, March.
    15. Ali E. Abbas & David V. Budescu & Yuhong (Rola) Gu, 2010. "Assessing Joint Distributions with Isoprobability Contours," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(6), pages 997-1011, June.
    16. Maria Leung & James H. Lambert & Alexander Mosenthal, 2004. "A Risk‐Based Approach to Setting Priorities in Protecting Bridges Against Terrorist Attacks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(4), pages 963-984, August.
    17. Tianyang Wang & James S. Dyer, 2012. "A Copulas-Based Approach to Modeling Dependence in Decision Trees," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 60(1), pages 225-242, February.
    18. Christopher C. Hadlock & J. Eric Bickel, 2017. "Johnson Quantile-Parameterized Distributions," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 14(1), pages 35-64, March.
    19. Michael J. Pennock & Yacov Y. Haimes, 2002. "Principles and guidelines for project risk management," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), pages 89-108.
    20. J. Eric Bickel & James E. Smith, 2006. "Optimal Sequential Exploration: A Binary Learning Model," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 3(1), pages 16-32, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:27:y:2007:i:4:p:961-978. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.