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Size and Power of Tests for Stationarity in Highly Autocorrelated Time Series

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  • Ulrich K. Müller

Abstract

Tests for stationarity are routinely applied to highly persistent time series. Following Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt and Shin (1992), standard stationarity employs a rescaling by an estimator of the long-run variance of the (potentially) stationary series. This paper analytically investigates the size and power properties of such tests when the series are strongly autocorrelated in a local-to-unity asymptotic framework. It is shown that the behavior of the tests strongly depends on the long-run variance estimator employed, but is in general highly undesirable. Either the tests fail to control for size even for strongly mean reverting series, or they are inconsistent against an integrated process and discriminate only poorly between stationary and integrated processes compared to optimal statistics.

Suggested Citation

  • Ulrich K. Müller, 2002. "Size and Power of Tests for Stationarity in Highly Autocorrelated Time Series," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2002 2002-26, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    • Handle: RePEc:usg:dp2002:2002-26
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tests for stationarity; local-to-unity asymptotics; long-run variance estimation; mean reversion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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