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After the Fall: Euro Area Adjustment

Author

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  • N. Holinski
  • C.J.M. Kool
  • J. Piplack

Abstract

Macroeconomic adjustment in the Southern countries of the euro area after the financial crisis appears well under way as external imbalances in these countries have almost disappeared. However, in this paper, we argue the underlying strctural problems persist and recovery is fragile. Both sovereign debt and external debt are approaching sustainability thresholds and indications of substantial structural reform are insufficient yet for the Southern countries. Prospects for higher growth in the near future are dim, due to lack of economic reforms, private and public debt overhang and imposed austerity programs. Moreover, the observed adjustment is strongly asymmetric and leads to more rather than less divergence. Overall, we feel the chosen approach will prove to be unsustainable and infeasible in the near future. To defend the euro and the euro area, a new approach is urgently needed.

Suggested Citation

  • N. Holinski & C.J.M. Kool & J. Piplack, 2014. "After the Fall: Euro Area Adjustment," Working Papers 14-05, Utrecht School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:use:tkiwps:1405
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    File URL: https://dspace.library.uu.nl/bitstream/handle/1874/293958/14-05.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Silvia Merler & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2012. "Sudden Stops in the Euro Area," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 3(3).
    2. Nils Holinski & Clemens J. M. Kool & Joan Muysken, 2012. "Persistent macroeconomic imbalances in the Euro area: causes and consequences," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 94(Jan), pages 1-20.
    3. Giuseppe Bertola & John Driffill & Harold James & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Ákos Valentinyi, 2013. "EEAG Report on the European Economy 2013 - Rebalancing Europe," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo, vol. 0, pages 01-116, February.
    4. Holinski, N. & Kool, C.J.M. & Muysken, J., 2009. "International Portfolio Balance: Modeling the External Adjustment Process," Research Memorandum 033, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
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    Cited by:

    1. Clemens Kool & Erik de Regt & Tom van Veen, 2013. "Money Overhang, Credit Overhang and Financial Imbalances in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 4476, CESifo.

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    Keywords

    macroeconomic imbalances; current account; competitiveness; economic integration; optimum currency area;
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