IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/inteco/v175y2023icp121-134.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fiscal outcomes, current account imbalances, and institutions in Europe: Exploring nonlinearities

Author

Listed:
  • Keita, Kady
  • Rabaud, Isabelle
  • Turcu, Camelia

Abstract

We analyze the fiscal outcomes associated to the current account imbalances within Europe. We hypothesize that the effects of current account imbalances on fiscal variables within the European Union are nonlinear and that the nonlinearity is modulated by the quality of governance. We use data on 28 European Union countries from 2000 to 2019, apply a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) approach and proxy governance by measures of corruption. We find evidence of a nonlinear relationship: the fiscal effects related to current account imbalances are differentiated among European countries. On the one hand, we find a positive elasticity of fiscal balance to current account balance when the quality of institutions is low. This suggests that in countries with high corruption, a deterioration of the current account results in a degradation of fiscal balance and an increase of debt. On the other hand, we find a negative elasticity of fiscal balance to current account balance when the quality of institutions is high. This implies that in countries with low corruption, larger current account imbalances can be related to an improved fiscal balance and a lower debt. Robustness checks comfort our findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Keita, Kady & Rabaud, Isabelle & Turcu, Camelia, 2023. "Fiscal outcomes, current account imbalances, and institutions in Europe: Exploring nonlinearities," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 121-134.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inteco:v:175:y:2023:i:c:p:121-134
    DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2023.04.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2110701723000306
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.inteco.2023.04.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Belke, Ansgar & Dreger, Christian, 2011. "Current account imbalances in the euro area: Catching up or competitiveness?," Discussion Papers 297, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    2. De Jong, Jasper F.M. & Gilbert, Niels D., 2020. "Fiscal discipline in EMU? Testing the effectiveness of the Excessive Deficit Procedure," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    3. González, Andrés & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Yang, Yukai, 2005. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 604, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 11 Oct 2017.
    4. Cristina Jude & Gregory Levieuge, 2017. "Growth Effect of Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Economies: The Role of Institutional Quality," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 715-742, April.
    5. Theofilakou, Nancy & Stournaras, Yannis, 2012. "Current account adjustments in OECD countries revisited: The role of the fiscal stance," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 719-734.
    6. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2007. "Current account balances, financial development and institutions: Assaying the world "saving glut"," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 546-569, June.
    7. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Ricardo Reis, 2019. "Crash Course on the Euro Crisis," Working Papers 258, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    8. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2012. "External adjustment and the global crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 252-265.
    9. Emmanuel Farhi & Jean Tirole, 2018. "Deadly Embrace: Sovereign and Financial Balance Sheets Doom Loops," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(3), pages 1781-1823.
    10. Gros, Daniel, 2012. "Macroeconomic Imbalances in the Euro Area: Symptom or cause of the crisis?," CEPS Papers 6865, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    11. Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2012. "The Euro crisis and the new impossible trinity," Policy Contributions 674, Bruegel.
    12. Afonso, António & Huart, Florence & Tovar Jalles, João & Stanek, Piotr, 2022. "Twin deficits revisited: A role for fiscal institutions?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    13. Valerio Filoso & Carlo Panico & Erasmo Papagni & Francesco Purificato & Marta Vázquez Suárez, 2021. "Timing Does Matter: Institutional Flaws and the European Debt Crisis," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 769-792, October.
    14. Christian Fahrholz & Andreas Freytag, 2012. "A Way to Solve the Euro pean Balance of Payments Crisis? Take a Chance on Market Solutions!," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(1), pages 77-82, February.
    15. Thushyanthan Baskaran & Zohal Hessami, 2017. "Monetary integration, soft budget constraints, and the EMU sovereign debt crises," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 252-275, November.
    16. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2012. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 658-677.
    17. Giancarlo Corsetti & Gernot J. Müller, 2006. "Twin deficits: squaring theory, evidence and common sense [‘Temporary and permanent government spending in an open economy: some evidence for the United Kingdom’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 21(48), pages 598-638.
    18. Imam Patrick Amir & Jacobs Davina, 2014. "Effect of Corruption on Tax Revenues in the Middle East," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-24, April.
    19. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:21:y:2006:i:48:p:597-638 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Carlo Panico, 2010. "The causes of the debt crisis in Europe and the role of regional integration," Working Papers wp234, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    21. Pappa, Evi & Sajedi, Rana & Vella, Eugenia, 2015. "Fiscal consolidation with tax evasion and corruption," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 56-75.
    22. Kumlin, Staffan & Esaiasson, Peter, 2012. "Scandal Fatigue? Scandal Elections and Satisfaction with Democracy in Western Europe, 1977–2007," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 263-282, April.
    23. Trachanas, Emmanouil & Katrakilidis, Constantinos, 2013. "The dynamic linkages of fiscal and current account deficits: New evidence from five highly indebted European countries accounting for regime shifts and asymmetries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 502-510.
    24. Esteban Perez-Caldentey & Matias Vernengo, 2012. "The Euro Imbalances and Financial Deregulation: A Post-Keynesian Interpretation of the European Debt Crisis," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_702, Levy Economics Institute.
    25. John Bluedorn & Daniel Leigh, 2011. "Revisiting the Twin Deficits Hypothesis: The Effect of Fiscal Consolidation on the Current Account," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(4), pages 582-602, November.
    26. J�rg Bibow, 2013. "The Euroland crisis and Germany's euro trilemma," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 360-385, May.
    27. Tanzi, Vito & Zee, Howell H., 2000. "Tax Policy for Emerging Markets: Developing Countries," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 53(2), pages 299-322, June.
    28. Spaventa, Luigi & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2010. "Why the current account may matter in a monetary union: Lessons from the financial crisis in the Euro area," CEPR Discussion Papers 8008, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    29. Nils Holinski & Clemens J. M. Kool & Joan Muysken, 2012. "Persistent macroeconomic imbalances in the Euro area: causes and consequences," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 94(Jan), pages 1-20.
    30. Marco Buti & Gabriele Giudice, 2002. "Maastricht’s Fiscal Rules at Ten: An Assessment," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(5), pages 823-848, December.
    31. Christopher J. Anderson & Yuliya V. Tverdova, 2003. "Corruption, Political Allegiances, and Attitudes Toward Government in Contemporary Democracies," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(1), pages 91-109, January.
    32. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2008. "Twin deficit or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the U.S," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 362-383, March.
    33. Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1993. "Modelling Non-Linear Economic Relationships," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773207.
    34. Katsimi, Margarita & Moutos, Thomas, 2010. "EMU and the Greek crisis: The political-economy perspective," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 568-576, December.
    35. López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mignon, Valérie, 2011. "On the impact of inflation on output growth: Does the level of inflation matter?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 455-464, September.
    36. Alexia Katsanidou & Ann-Kathrin Reinl & Christina Eder, 2022. "Together we stand? Transnational solidarity in the EU in times of crises," European Union Politics, , vol. 23(1), pages 66-78, March.
    37. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2011. "Peripheral Europe's debt and German wages: the role of wage policy in the Euro area," International Journal of Public Policy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1/2/3), pages 83-96.
    38. Philip R. Lane, 2012. "The European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 49-68, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alison Johnston & Bob Hancké & Suman Pant, 2013. "Comparative Institutional Advantage in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis," LEQS – LSE 'Europe in Question' Discussion Paper Series 66, European Institute, LSE.
    2. Johnston, Alison & Hancké, Bob & Pant, Suman, 2013. "Comparative institutional advantage in the European sovereign debt crisis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 53177, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Alison Johnston & Bob Hancké & Suman Pant, 2013. "Comparative Institutional Advantage in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Europe in Question Discussion Paper Series of the London School of Economics (LEQs) 6, London School of Economics / European Institute.
    4. Afonso, António & Huart, Florence & Tovar Jalles, João & Stanek, Piotr, 2022. "Twin deficits revisited: A role for fiscal institutions?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    5. Hubert Gabrisch & Karsten Staehr, 2015. "The Euro Plus Pact: Competitiveness and External Capital Flows in the EU Countries," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 558-576, May.
    6. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "On the impact of the launch of the euro on EMU macroeconomic vulnerability," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-51, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    7. Elisabetta Croci Angelini & Francesco Farina & Enzo Valentini, 2016. "Contagion across Eurozone’s sovereign spreads and the Core-Periphery divide," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(1), pages 197-213, February.
    8. Hubert Gabrisch, 2015. "Net Capital Flows To And The Real Exchange Rate Of Western Balkan Countries," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 60(205), pages 31-52, April – J.
    9. Faure Emmanuelle & Grekou Carl & Mignon Valérie, 2024. "Current Account Balances’ Divergence in the Euro Area: An Appraisal of the Underlying Forces," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(1), pages 353-398, January.
    10. Valérie Mignon & Carl Grekou & Emmanuelle Faure, 2023. "Current account balances’ divergence in the euro area: an appraisal of the underlying forces," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-3, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    11. Zoran Grubišiæ & Sandra Kamenkoviæ & Aleksandar Zdravkoviæ, 2018. "Impact of government balance and exchange rate regime on current account during the economic cycle: evidence from CEE countries," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 36(1), pages 309-336.
    12. Itchoko Motande Mondjeli Mwa Ndjokou & Pierre Christian Tsopmo, 2017. "The effects on economic growth of natural resources in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does the quality of institutions matters?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(1), pages 248-263.
    13. Davide Furceri & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2020. "Twin Deficits in Developing Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 1-23, February.
    14. Benedetta Bianchi, 2016. "Sovereign Risk Premia and the International Balance Sheet: Lessons from the European Crisis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 471-493, July.
    15. Nizar, Muhammad Afdi, 2013. "Pengaruh Defisit Anggaran Terhadap Defisit Transaksi Berjalan Di Indonesia [The Effect of Budget Deficit on Current Accounts Deficit in Indonesia]," MPRA Paper 65609, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Hubert Gabrisch & Karsten Staehr, 2014. "The Euro Plus Pact: Cost Competitiveness and External Capital Flows in the EU Countries. WWWforEurope Policy Paper No. 15," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47496.
    17. António Afonso & Philemon Kwame Opoku, 2018. "The Relationship between Fiscal and Current Account Imbalances in OECD Economies," Working Papers REM 2018/61, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    18. Hürtgen, Patrick & Rühmkorf, Ronald, 2014. "Sovereign default risk and state-dependent twin deficits," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 357-382.
    19. Gabrisch, Hubert & Staehr, Karsten, 2014. "The euro plus pact: cost competitiveness and external capital flows in the EU countries," Working Paper Series 1650, European Central Bank.
    20. Trachanas, Emmanouil & Katrakilidis, Constantinos, 2013. "The dynamic linkages of fiscal and current account deficits: New evidence from five highly indebted European countries accounting for regime shifts and asymmetries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 502-510.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    European debt crisis; Current account; Governance; Corruption; PSTR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:inteco:v:175:y:2023:i:c:p:121-134. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/21107017 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.