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Social protection in times of conflict: Evidence from Ethiopia

Author

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  • Rute Martins Caeiro
  • Rachel Sabates-Wheeler
  • Patricia Justino

Abstract

This paper examines the role of social protection in mitigating the adverse effects of conflict on household welfare. We assess the impact of a graduation intervention linked to Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Programme, focusing on Amhara, a region severely affected by the Tigray conflict. Using data from a large randomized controlled trial and panel surveys conducted before and after the conflict, we evaluate the effectiveness of social protection in conflict settings. Our estimation strategy leverages variation in conflict exposure combined with exogenous programme participation.

Suggested Citation

  • Rute Martins Caeiro & Rachel Sabates-Wheeler & Patricia Justino, 2025. "Social protection in times of conflict: Evidence from Ethiopia," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2025-9, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sam Hickey & Tom Lavers & Miguel Niño-Zarazúa & Jeremy Seekings, 2018. "The negotiated politics of social protection in sub-Saharan Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-34, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Kalle Hirvonen & Elia Machado & Andrew M. Simons, 2024. "Can social assistance reduce violent conflict and civil unrest?: Evidence from a large-scale public works programme in Ethiopia," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2024-78, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig, 2021. "The Elusive Peace Dividend of Development Policy: From War Traps to Macro Complementarities," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 111-131, August.
    4. Sam Hickey & Tom Lavers & Miguel Niño-Zarazúa & Jeremy Seekings, 2018. "The negotiated politics of social protection in sub-Saharan Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 034, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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