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Can social assistance reduce violent conflict and civil unrest? Evidence from a large-scale public works program in Ethiopia

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  • Hirvonen, Kalle
  • Machado, Elia
  • Simons, Andrew M.

Abstract

Violent conflict and political instability are escalating worldwide, with Africa experiencing some of the most severe challenges. The region, home to 60% of the world’s poor (World Bank 2023), saw statebased armed conflict events nearly triple between 2007 and 2023 (Rustad 2024), while protests more than quadrupled from 2007 to 2019 (OECD 2021). Over this period, poverty reduction in Africa has been particularly sluggish in fragile and conflict-affected areas (Beegle et al. 2018a), likely due to the substantial economic losses associated with violent conflict and civil unrest.

Suggested Citation

  • Hirvonen, Kalle & Machado, Elia & Simons, Andrew M., 2024. "Can social assistance reduce violent conflict and civil unrest? Evidence from a large-scale public works program in Ethiopia," CGIAR Initative Publications Fragility, Conflict, and , International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:163420
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    1. Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig, 2021. "The Elusive Peace Dividend of Development Policy: From War Traps to Macro Complementarities," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 111-131, August.
    2. Leight, Jessica & Hirvonen, Kalle & Zafar, Sarim, 2024. "The effectiveness of cash and cash plus interventions on livelihoods outcomes: Evidence from a systematic review and meta-analysis," IFPRI discussion papers 2262, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Cesar Zucco, 2013. "When Payouts Pay Off: Conditional Cash Transfers and Voting Behavior in Brazil 2002–10," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(4), pages 810-822, October.
    4. Logan Cochrane & Y. Tamiru, 2016. "Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Program: Power, Politics and Practice," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 649-665, July.
    5. Simeon Djankov & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2010. "Poverty and Civil War: Revisiting the Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 1035-1041, November.
    6. Joffe, Marshall M. & Ten Have, Thomas R. & Feldman, Harold I. & Kimmel, Stephen E., 2004. "Model Selection, Confounder Control, and Marginal Structural Models: Review and New Applications," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 58, pages 272-279, November.
    7. Kalle Hirvonen & John Hoddinott, 2021. "Beneficiary Views on Cash and In-Kind Payments: Evidence from Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Programme," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 35(2), pages 398-413.
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