IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/unm/unumer/2009028.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Growth with imported resources: On the sustainability of U.S. growth and foreign debt

Author

Listed:
  • Ziesemer, Thomas

    (UNU-MERIT, and Maastricht University)

Abstract

We provide a growth model with imported resources and foreign debt accumulation providing the basis for two questions and regression equations. 1) Under what conditions do growth rates of per capita income remain positive if imported inputs such as oil have increasing real prices? 2) Is accumulation of foreign debt driven by a current account deficit of which two percent of the GDP stem from oil imports, sustainable? For both questions we provide estimates for the USA with the following results. Oil price growth rates have only a marginal impact on those of GDP per capita as long as they exceed inflation rates by not much more than they did in the past. The US foreign debt/GDP ratio follows an unstable difference equation and therefore is not sustainable. We briefly discuss possible future stabilization through the market and through policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Ziesemer, Thomas, 2009. "Growth with imported resources: On the sustainability of U.S. growth and foreign debt," MERIT Working Papers 2009-028, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:unm:unumer:2009028
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://unu-merit.nl/publications/wppdf/2009/wp2009-028.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kemp, Murray C. & Van Long, Ngo, 1982. "Conditions for the survival of a small resource-importing economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1-2), pages 135-142, August.
    2. John Kitchen, 2007. "Sharecroppers or Shrewd Capitalists? Projections of the US Current Account, International Income Flows, and Net International Debt," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 1036-1061, November.
    3. Lippi, Francesco & Nobili, Andrea, 2008. "Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Structural VAR Analysis with Sign Restrictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 6830, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Ms. Miranda Xafa, 2007. "Global Imbalances and Financial Stability," IMF Working Papers 2007/111, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Lance Bachmeier & Qi Li & Dandan Liu, 2008. "Should Oil Prices Receive So Much Attention? An Evaluation Of The Predictive Power Of Oil Prices For The U.S. Economy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 46(4), pages 528-539, October.
    6. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2007. "Estimations of US debt dynamics: Growth cum debt and the savings glut in Kouri’s model," MERIT Working Papers 2007-003, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    7. Paul Krugman, 2007. "Will there be a dollar crisis? [‘Current account fact and fiction’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 22(51), pages 436-467.
    8. Xafa, Miranda, 2007. "Global imbalances and financial stability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 783-796.
    9. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2005. "Growth with perfect capital movements in CES: US Debt Dynamics and model estimation," Research Memorandum 012, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    10. Matthew Higgins & Thomas Klitgaard & Cédric Tille, 2006. "Borrowing without debt? Understanding the U.S. international investment position," Staff Reports 271, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arslan, Yavuz & Kılınç, Mustafa & Turhan, M. İbrahim, 2015. "Global imbalances, current account rebalancing and exchange rate adjustments," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 324-341.
    2. Fracasso, Andrea & Schiavo, Stefano, 2009. "Global imbalances, exchange rates adjustment and the crisis: Implications from network analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 601-619, September.
    3. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2009. "Where did all the borrowing go? A forensic analysis of the U.S. external position," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-199, June.
    4. Vines, David & Kuralbayeva, Karlygash, 2009. "The process by which the Dollar will fall: the effect of forward-looking consumers," CEPR Discussion Papers 7325, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan & Mr. Volodymyr Tulin & Mr. Tamim Bayoumi, 2007. "Globalization, Gluts, Innovation or Irrationality: What Explains the Easy Financing of the U.S. Current Account Deficit?," IMF Working Papers 2007/160, International Monetary Fund.
    6. KORKMAZ, Özge, 2017. "Is Minsky’S Instability Hypothesis Acceptable For The Relation Between Borrowing Rate And Profitability?," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 21(1), pages 6-27.
    7. Bharathkumar, Sai Ranjani & Gupta, Santanu, 2020. "Simplex representation of insurance performance analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 419-436.
    8. Célestin Monga, 2012. "The Hegelian dialectics of global imbalances," The Journal of Philosophical Economics, Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, The Journal of Philosophical Economics, vol. 6(1), November.
    9. Makin, Anthony J. & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2008. "Have US external imbalances been determined at home or abroad?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 520-531, May.
    10. Tania El Kallab, 2014. "Global Imbalances: "Made in the USA" or "Made in China"?," THEMA Working Papers 2014-28, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    11. Agnès Bénassy‐Quéré & Lionel Fontagné & Horst Raff, 2011. "Exchange‐rate Misalignments in Duopoly: The Case of Airbus and Boeing," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 623-641, April.
    12. Yang, Lu & Cai, Xiao Jing & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2018. "What determines the long-term correlation between oil prices and exchange rates?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 140-152.
    13. Marcel Fratzscher & Roland Straub, 2013. "Asset Prices, News Shocks, and the Trade Balance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(7), pages 1211-1251, October.
    14. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock, 2009. "Current Account Sustainability and Relative Reliability," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 67-109.
    15. Robert N McCauley, 2018. "The 2008 crisis: transpacific or transatlantic?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    16. Hans-Werner Sinn & John Hassler & Gilles Saint-Paul & Giancarlo Corsetti & Michael P. Devereux & Tim Jenkinson & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Xavier Vives, 2009. "Chapter 2: The Financial Crisis," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo, vol. 0, pages 59-122, February.
    17. Kumhof, Michael & Sokol, Andrej & Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai, 2020. "How Does International Capital Flow?," CEPR Discussion Papers 15526, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Devereux, Michael B. & Sutherland, Alan, 2010. "Valuation effects and the dynamics of net external assets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 129-143, January.
    19. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas, 2014. "The Return on U.S. Direct Investment at Home and Abroad," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Wealth and Financial Intermediation and Their Links to the Real Economy, pages 205-230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Tim Oliver Berg, 2013. "Cross-country evidence on the relation between stock prices and the current account," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2267-2277, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital movements; growth; sustainability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unm:unumer:2009028. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ad Notten The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Ad Notten to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/meritnl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.