IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ums/papers/2016-15.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Long Waves of Capitalist Development : An Empirical Investigation

Author

Listed:
  • Deepankar Basu

    (Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts - Amherst)

Abstract

In this paper, I investigate the phenomenon of long waves of capitalist development from two perspectives. First, I look for evidence of long waves of economic growth taking the dates for turning points of long waves from the historical literature (Mandel, 1995). Using historical data for 20 capitalist countries from the Maddison-Project, I find that the growth rate of real per capita GDP (and real GDP) is significantly higher in the upswing than in the downswing phase of long waves. I interpret this as evidence of long waves of economic activity. Second, I revisit the method used by Gordon, Weisskopf and Bowles (1983) to identify long waves, using historical data on the U.S. economy from Dumenil and Levy (2013). I use this definition of long waves to test their hypothesis that business cycle downturns are ‘reproductive’ during the upswing phase and ‘non- reproductive’ during the downswing phase of long waves. I find evidence in support of the hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Deepankar Basu, 2016. "Long Waves of Capitalist Development : An Empirical Investigation," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2016-15, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ums:papers:2016-15
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.umass.edu/economics/publications/2016-15.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Weisskopf, Thomas E, 1979. "Marxian Crisis Theory and the Rate of Profit in the Postwar U.S. Economy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 3(4), pages 341-378, December.
    2. Gordon, David M & Weisskopf, Thomas E & Bowles, Samuel, 1983. "Long Swings and the Nonreproductive Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(2), pages 152-157, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mark Knell & Simone Vannuccini, 2022. "Tools and concepts for understanding disruptive technological change after Schumpeter," Jena Economics Research Papers 2022-005, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    2. Fred Moseley, 1990. "The Decline of the Rate of Profit in the Postwar U.S. Economy: An Alternative Marxian Explanation," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 22(2-3), pages 17-37, June.
    3. Di Bucchianico, Stefano, 2019. "The Impact of Financialization on the Rate of Profit: A Discussion," Centro Sraffa Working Papers CSWP36, Centro di Ricerche e Documentazione "Piero Sraffa".
    4. Eckhard Hein, 2019. "Karl Marx: an early post-Keynesian? A comparison of Marx's economics with the contributions by Sraffa, Keynes, Kalecki and Minsky," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 16(2), pages 238-259, September.
    5. Rudy Fichtenbaum, 1988. "'Business Cycles,' Turnover and the Rate of Profit: An Empirical Test of Marxian Crisis Theory," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 221-228, Jul-Sep.
    6. Bengtsson, Erik & Waldenström, Daniel, 2018. "Capital Shares and Income Inequality: Evidence from the Long Run," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 78(3), pages 712-743, September.
    7. Hager, Sandy Brian, 2013. "Public Debt, Ownership and Power: The Political Economy of Distribution and Redistribution," EconStor Theses, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, number 157991, January.
    8. Alexiou, Constantinos, 2022. "Evaluating the falling rate of profit in the context of the UK economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 84-94.
    9. Alexei Izyumov & John Vahaly, 2015. "Income Shares Revisited," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 61(1), pages 179-188, March.
    10. Santiago José Gahn & Alejandro González, 2022. "On the empirical content of the convergence debate: Cross‐country evidence on growth and capacity utilisation," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 825-855, July.
    11. Hein, Eckhard & Dodig, Nina & Budyldina, Natalia, 2014. "Financial, economic and social systems: French Regulation School, Social Structures of Accumulation and Post-Keynesian approaches compared," IPE Working Papers 34/2014, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    12. Erdogan Bakir, 2015. "Capital Accumulation, Profitability, and Crisis," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 47(3), pages 389-411, September.
    13. Thierry Aimar & Francis Bismans & Claude Diebolt, 2012. "Economic Cycles: A Synthesis," Working Papers 12-11, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    14. Robert A. Blecker, 2016. "Wage-led versus profit-led demand regimes: the long and the short of it," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 4(4), pages 373-390, October.
    15. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2022. "Determinants of the profit rates in the OECD economies: A panel data analysis of the Kalecki's profit equation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 380-397.
    16. Vaona, Andrea, 2011. "Profit rate dynamics, income distribution, structural and technical change in Denmark, Finland and Italy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 247-268, September.
    17. James Heintz, 2013. "Unpacking the US labor share," Chapters, in: Jeannette Wicks-Lim & Robert Pollin (ed.), Capitalism on Trial, chapter 21, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Julian Wells, Julian, 2007. "The rate of profit as a random variable," MPRA Paper 98235, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Maito, Esteban Ezequiel, 2014. "Auge y estancamiento de Japón (1955-2008). Una explicación marxista [Rise and standstill of Japan (1955-2008). A Marxist explanation]," MPRA Paper 53102, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Ivan D. Trofimov, 2017. "Profit rates in the developed capitalist economies: a time series investigation," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 70(281), pages 85-128.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    capitalism; long waves; expected profitability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B14 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - Socialist; Marxist
    • B24 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Socialist; Marxist; Scraffian
    • B51 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Socialist; Marxian; Sraffian

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ums:papers:2016-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Daniele Girardi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deumaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.