IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/streco/v61y2022icp84-94.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluating the falling rate of profit in the context of the UK economy

Author

Listed:
  • Alexiou, Constantinos

Abstract

In this study, by utilizing quarterly data for the UK economy over the period 1985Q1 to 2019Q4, we explore (a) the determinants of the profit rate in the context of the Marxian tradition and (b) by using a probabilistic framework of analysis, we investigate the factors associated with the occurrences of UK recessions. The evidence indicates that the wage share of income is inversely related to the profit rate whilst the capacity utilization, the capacity-to-capital ratio and the monetary expression of labour time have all a positive impact on the profit rate. Additional evidence suggests that the probability of a recession decreases with higher profitability, whilst at the same time the wage-led hypothesis is also supported. Finally, the impact of interest rates on the likelihood of UK's economic recessions is found to be insignificant.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexiou, Constantinos, 2022. "Evaluating the falling rate of profit in the context of the UK economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 84-94.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:61:y:2022:i:c:p:84-94
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2022.01.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X22000054
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.strueco.2022.01.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barry Eichengreen & Albrecht Ritschl, 2009. "Understanding West German economic growth in the 1950s," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 3(3), pages 191-219, October.
    2. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2011. "Wage norms, capital accumulation, and unemployment: a post-Keynesian view," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 27(2), pages 295-311.
    3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    5. Amitava Krishna Dutt, 2011. "The role of aggregate demand in classical-Marxian models of economic growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 35(2), pages 357-382.
    6. James R. Crotty, 1993. "Rethinking Marxian Investment Theory: Keynes-Minsky Instability, Competitive Regime Shifts and Coerced Investment," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 1-26, March.
    7. Raford Boddy & James Crotty, 1975. "Class Conflict and Macro-Policy: The Political Business Cycle," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, April.
    8. Constantinos Alexiou & Persefoni Tsaliki & Lefteris Tsoulfidis, 2016. "Classical Theory of Investment: Panel Cointegration Evidence From 13 EU Countries," Contributions to Political Economy, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 35(1), pages 39-56.
    9. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    10. João Paulo Pessoa & John Van Reenen, 2014. "The UK Productivity and Jobs Puzzle: Does the Answer Lie in Wage Flexibility?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 433-452, May.
    11. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    12. Freeman, Alan, 2009. "What makes the US Profit Rate Fall?," MPRA Paper 14147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Gérard Dumesnil & Dominique Levy, 2011. "The crisis of neoliberalism," Post-Print halshs-00654682, HAL.
    14. Duncan K. Foley, 1982. "The Value of Money the Value of Labor Power and the Marxian Transformation Problem," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 14(2), pages 37-47, June.
    15. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    16. Weisskopf, Thomas E, 1979. "Marxian Crisis Theory and the Rate of Profit in the Postwar U.S. Economy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 3(4), pages 341-378, December.
    17. Gérard Dumesnil & Dominique Levy, 2011. "The crisis of neoliberalism," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00654682, HAL.
    18. Simon Mohun, 2005. "On measuring the wealth of nations: the US economy, 1964–2001," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 29(5), pages 799-815, September.
    19. Reinert, Erik S., 2012. "Neo-classical economics: A trail of economic destruction since the 1970s," MPRA Paper 47910, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Jan Toporowski, 1999. "Kalecki and the Declining Rate of Profit," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 355-371.
    21. Constantinos Alexiou, 2010. "A Keynesian-Kaleckian model of investment determination: a panel data investigation," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 427-444, April.
    22. Alexiou, Constantinos & Trachanas, Emmanouil, 2020. "Predicting post-war US recessions: A probit modelling approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 210-219.
    23. Thanasis Maniatis, 2012. "Marxist Theories of Crisis and the Current Economic Crisis," Forum for Social Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 6-29, April.
    24. Makoto Itoh, 1988. "The Basic Theory of Capitalism," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-19107-9, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kabeer Bora, 2023. "The Drain Gain: An investigation into how colonial drain helped keep British economy buoyant," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2023_01, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    2. Ivan D. Trofimov, 2024. "A Time Series Analysis of Corporate Profit Rates in Selected Developed Economies: Asymmetries, Non-linearity and Mean Reversion," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 22(2), pages 303-338, June.
    3. Jafar Hussain & Chien‐Chiang Lee, 2022. "A green path towards sustainable development: Optimal behavior of the duopoly game model with carbon neutrality instruments," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 1523-1541, December.
    4. George Saridakis & Constantinos Alexiou & Roger Hoseinc & Nirvana Satnarine-Singhc, 2022. "Hegemonic Sanctions and Global Economic Ramifications in the Context of the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict: A Commentary," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 72(1-2), pages 34-55, January-J.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexiou, Constantinos & Trachanas, Emmanouil, 2020. "Predicting post-war US recessions: A probit modelling approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 210-219.
    2. Trofimov, Ivan D. & Md. Aris, Nazaria & Bin Rosli, Muhammad K. F., 2018. "Macroeconomic Determinants of the Labour Share of Income: Evidence from OECD Economies," MPRA Paper 85597, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Muhammad Shahbaz & Mete Feridun, 2012. "Electricity consumption and economic growth empirical evidence from Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 46(5), pages 1583-1599, August.
    4. Mohammad Mafizur Rahman & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2013. "Do Imports and Foreign Capital Inflows Lead Economic Growth? Cointegration and Causality Analysis in Pakistan," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 14(1), pages 59-81, March.
    5. Ferda Halicioglu, 2010. "An Econometric Analysis of the Aggregate Outbound Tourism Demand of Turkey," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(1), pages 83-97, March.
    6. Al-Mulali, Usama & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2014. "Are energy conservation policies effective without harming economic growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 639-650.
    7. Constantinos Alexiou & Persefoni Tsaliki & Lefteris Tsoulfidis, 2008. "The Greek Hyperinflation Revisited," Ekonomia, Cyprus Economic Society and University of Cyprus, vol. 11(1), pages 19-34, Summer.
    8. Wang, Zhe & Teng, Yin-Pei & Wu, Shuzhao & Liu, Yuxiang & Liu, Xianchang, 2023. "Geopolitical risk, financial system and natural resources extraction: Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    9. Muhammad Shahbaz & Mohammad Mafizur Rahman, 2012. "The Dynamic of Financial Development, Imports, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Cointegration and Causality Analysis in Pakistan," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 13(2), pages 201-219, June.
    10. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hye, Qazi Muhammad Adnan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Leitão, Nuno Carlos, 2013. "Economic growth, energy consumption, financial development, international trade and CO2 emissions in Indonesia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 109-121.
    11. Bibhuti Ranjan Mishra & Asit Mohanty, 2017. "An Empirical Analysis of Aggregate Import Demand Function for India," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 1-12, December.
    12. Sanjay Sehgal & Ritesh Kumar Mishra & Ajay Jaisawal, 2021. "A search for macroeconomic determinants of corporate financial distress," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 435-461, December.
    13. Ahmad, Najid & Du, Liangsheng, 2017. "Effects of energy production and CO2 emissions on economic growth in Iran: ARDL approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 521-537.
    14. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Shabbir, Muhammad Shahbaz & Malik, Muhammad Nasir & Wolters, Mark Edward, 2013. "An analysis of a causal relationship between economic growth and terrorism in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 21-29.
    15. Goh, Soo Khoon & McNown, Robert, 2015. "Examining the exchange rate regime–monetary policy autonomy nexus: Evidence from Malaysia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 292-303.
    16. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Shannak, Sa'd, 2020. "Electricity incentives for agriculture in Saudi Arabia. Is that relevant to remove them?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    17. Hai Tao & Hailin Mu & Nan Li & Peng Wang, 2023. "Alternative Energy and CO 2 Emission in China: Evidence from Bounds Testing and Vector Error Correction Model Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-19, April.
    18. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Shabbir, Muhammad Shahbaz, 2012. "Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis in Pakistan: Cointegration and Granger causality," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 2947-2953.
    19. Muhammad Shahbaz & Amatul Razzaq Chaudhary & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2020. "Is energy consumption sensitive to foreign capital inflows and currency devaluation in Pakistan?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(52), pages 5641-5658, June.
    20. Ahmad, Ashfaq & Zhao, Yuhuan & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Bano, Sadia & Zhang, Zhonghua & Wang, Song & Liu, Ya, 2016. "Carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth: An aggregate and disaggregate analysis of the Indian economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 131-143.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Marx; Profit rate; Wage share; UK recessions; ARDL; Probit model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B50 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - General
    • B51 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Socialist; Marxian; Sraffian
    • D33 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Factor Income Distribution
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:61:y:2022:i:c:p:84-94. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/525148 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.