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A New Approach to Modeling the Effects of Temperature Fluctuations on Monthly Electricity Demand

Author

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  • Yoosoon Chang

    (Department of Economics, Indiana University)

  • Chang Sik Kim

    (Department of Economics, Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul 110-745, Korea)

  • J. Isaac Miller

    (Department of Economics, University of Missouri)

  • Joon Y. Park

    (Department of Economics, Indiana University and Sungkyunkwan University)

  • Sungkeun Park

    ( Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade)

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel approach to measure and analyze the effect of temperature on electricity demand. This temperature effect is specified as a function of the density of temperatures observed at a high frequency with a functional coefficient, which we call the temperature response function. This approach contrasts with the usual approach to model the temperature effect as a function of heating and cooling degree days. We further investigate how non-climate variables, which include the price of electricity relative to that of substitutable energy and latent variables such as preferences and technology that we proxy by a linear time trend, affect the demand response to temperature changes. Our approach and methodology are demonstrated using Korean electricity demand data for residential and commercial sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoosoon Chang & Chang Sik Kim & J. Isaac Miller & Joon Y. Park & Sungkeun Park, 2015. "A New Approach to Modeling the Effects of Temperature Fluctuations on Monthly Electricity Demand," Working Papers 1512, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
    • Handle: RePEc:umc:wpaper:1512
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    Cited by:

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    3. Tian, Chuyin & Huang, Guohe & Piwowar, Joseph M. & Yeh, Shin-Cheng & Lu, Chen & Duan, Ruixin & Ren, Jiayan, 2022. "Stochastic RCM-driven cooling and heating energy demand analysis for residential building," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    4. Hocheol Jeon, 2019. "The Impact of Climate Change on Passenger Vehicle Fuel Consumption: Evidence from U.S. Panel Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-15, November.
    5. Harish, Santosh & Singh, Nishmeet & Tongia, Rahul, 2020. "Impact of temperature on electricity demand: Evidence from Delhi and Indian states," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    6. Alimohammadisagvand, Behrang & Jokisalo, Juha & Sirén, Kai, 2018. "Comparison of four rule-based demand response control algorithms in an electrically and heat pump-heated residential building," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 167-179.
    7. Ha-Hyun Jo & Minwoo Jang & Jaehyeok Kim, 2020. "How Population Age Distribution Affects Future Electricity Demand in Korea: Applying Population Polynomial Function," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-17, October.
    8. Gautam, Tej K. & Paudel, Krishna P., 2018. "Estimating sectoral demands for electricity using the pooled mean group method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 54-67.
    9. Manner, Hans & Alavi Fard, Farzad & Pourkhanali, Armin & Tafakori, Laleh, 2019. "Forecasting the joint distribution of Australian electricity prices using dynamic vine copulae," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 143-164.
    10. Hu, Wenxuan & Scholz, Yvonne & Yeligeti, Madhura & Deng, Ying & Jochem, Patrick, 2024. "Future electricity demand for Europe: Unraveling the dynamics of the Temperature Response Function," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 368(C).
    11. Ang, B.W. & Wang, H. & Ma, Xiaojing, 2017. "Climatic influence on electricity consumption: The case of Singapore and Hong Kong," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 534-543.
    12. Leonardo Bortolan & Atreya Dey & Luca Taschini, 2024. "Volatile Temperatures and Their Effects on Equity Returns and Firm Performance," CESifo Working Paper Series 11438, CESifo.
    13. Mosquera-López, Stephanía & Uribe, Jorge M. & Manotas-Duque, Diego F., 2018. "Effect of stopping hydroelectric power generation on the dynamics of electricity prices: An event study approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 456-467.
    14. Miller, J. Isaac & Nam, Kyungsik, 2022. "Modeling peak electricity demand: A semiparametric approach using weather-driven cross-temperature response functions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    15. Wang, Chong & Ju, Ping & Wu, Feng & Pan, Xueping & Wang, Zhaoyu, 2022. "A systematic review on power system resilience from the perspective of generation, network, and load," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    16. Stéphane AURAY & Vincent CAPONI, 2020. "A Vector Autoregressive Model of Forecast Electricity Consumption in France," Working Papers 2020-06, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    17. Kamal Chapagain & Somsak Kittipiyakul & Pisut Kulthanavit, 2020. "Short-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting: Impact Analysis of Temperature for Thailand," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-29, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    electricity demand; temperature effect; temperature response function; cross temperature response function; electricity demand in Korea;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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