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Speculation and Hedging in the Currency Futures Markets: Are They Informative to the Spot Exchange Rates

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Abstract

This paper presents an empirical analysis investigating the relationship between the futures trading activities of speculators and hedgers and the potential movements of major spot exchange rates. A set of trader position measures are employed as regression predictors, including the level and change of net positions, an investor sentiment index, extremely bullish/bearish sentiments, and the peak/trough indicators. We find that the peaks and troughs of net positions are generally useful predictors to the evolution of spot exchange rates but other trader position measures are less correlated with future market movements. In addition, speculative position measures usually forecast price-continuations in spot rates while hedging position measures forecast price-reversals in these markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Aaron Tornell & Chunming Yuan, "undated". "Speculation and Hedging in the Currency Futures Markets: Are They Informative to the Spot Exchange Rates," UMBC Economics Department Working Papers 09-116, UMBC Department of Economics, revised 01 Nov 2009.
    • Handle: RePEc:umb:econwp:09116
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spot Exchange Rates; Currency Futures; Speculation; Hedging; Commitments of Traders;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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