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Nowcasting del PIB para Uruguay en base a un modelo de ecuaciones puente

Author

Listed:
  • Alejo Estavillo

    (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía)

  • Gabriela Mordecki

    (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía)

Abstract

In the realm of public policy or general economic decision-making, having timely information regarding the level of economic activity is of utmost importance. In this article we explore two methodologies applied to the Uruguayan case: a nowcasting exercise for GDP based on bridge equations estimated through the GETS methodology; and another based on a univariate model, exploiting the newly released Monthly Economic Activity Indicator (IMAE) by the Central Bank of Uruguay. Based on the nowcasting model, with information available up to September 2023, a year-on-year contraction of 0.2 % was expected in Q3-2023, and - still without information for Q4-2023 - a modest growth of 0.04 % for the year’s average. Furthermore, when comparing the projections within the sample with those obtained from a naive model (univariate for GDP), it is observed that the former are more accurate. Additionally, the feasibility of conducting pooling to enhance projections is explored.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejo Estavillo & Gabriela Mordecki, 2023. "Nowcasting del PIB para Uruguay en base a un modelo de ecuaciones puente," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 23-26, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    • Handle: RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-26-23
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    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/42234
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vladimir Kuzin & Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2009. "Pooling versus Model Selection for Nowcasting with Many Predictors: An Application to German GDP," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/13, European University Institute.
    2. Schumacher, Christian, 2014. "MIDAS and bridge equations," Discussion Papers 26/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Conrado Brum & Helena Rodríguez, 2016. "Modelos puente para proyectar el PIB en el corto plazo. Enfoque sectorial," Documentos de trabajo 2016010, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    4. Foroni, Claudia & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2014. "A comparison of mixed frequency approaches for nowcasting Euro area macroeconomic aggregates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 554-568.
    5. Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Nowcasting the French index of industrial production: A comparison from bridge and factor models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2174-2182.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    nowcasting; Uruguay; bridge equations; GETS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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