IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v71y2021icp955-973.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Creating the illicit capital flows network in Europe – Do the net errors and omissions follow an economic pattern?

Author

Listed:
  • Siranova, Maria
  • Tiruneh, Menbere Workie
  • Fisera, Boris

Abstract

This paper uses the Net errors and omissions, a standard measure of illicit capital flows, to create a Europe-wide network of illicit capital flows by the rolling window Granger causality method. In the second stage, we investigate the factors that determine the creation of links among country pairs in the illicit capital flow network by Cragg’s two-stage Tobit model. Our results suggest that the process of link creation is conducive to the long-term interest rate differential, while the frequency of link occurrence is determined by the strength of trade linkages, exposure to FDI flows and differences in economic development associated with overall institutional quality and corporate tax rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Siranova, Maria & Tiruneh, Menbere Workie & Fisera, Boris, 2021. "Creating the illicit capital flows network in Europe – Do the net errors and omissions follow an economic pattern?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 955-973.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:71:y:2021:i:c:p:955-973
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2020.10.020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056020302483
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2020.10.020?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Schmitz, 2011. "Financial reforms and capital flows to emerging Europe," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 38(4), pages 579-605, November.
    2. Baumöhl, Eduard & Kočenda, Evžen & Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrost, Tomáš, 2018. "Networks of volatility spillovers among stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 1555-1574.
    3. Mert Demirer & Francis X. Diebold & Laura Liu & Kamil Yilmaz, 2018. "Estimating global bank network connectedness," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 1-15, January.
    4. Filip Novokmet & Thomas Piketty & Gabriel Zucman, 2018. "From Soviets to oligarchs: inequality and property in Russia 1905-2016," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 16(2), pages 189-223, June.
    5. Mr. Simeon Inidayo Ajayi, 1997. "An Analysis of External Debt and Capital Flight in the Severely Indebted Low Income Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 1997/068, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti & Haonan Zhou, 2017. "The Global Banking Network in the Aftermath of the Crisis: Is There Evidence of De-globalization?," IMF Working Papers 2017/232, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Ms. Sheri M. Markose, 2012. "Systemic Risk from Global Financial Derivatives: A Network Analysis of Contagion and Its Mitigation with Super-Spreader Tax," IMF Working Papers 2012/282, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 92-96, May.
    9. Andreas Joseph & Stephan Joseph & Guanrong Chen, 2013. "Cross-border Portfolio Investment Networks and Indicators for Financial Crises," Papers 1306.0215, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2014.
    10. Roine, Jesper & Waldenström, Daniel, 2014. "Long-Run Trends in the Distribution of Income and Wealth," Working Paper Series 1021, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    11. Okawa, Yohei & van Wincoop, Eric, 2012. "Gravity in International Finance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 205-215.
    12. Liung shi Ding & Tuck cheong Tang, 2017. "‘Net Errors and Omissions' of Balance of Payments and Its Sustainability: A Survey of Literature," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(4), pages 2753-2766.
    13. Haggard, Stephan & Tiede, Lydia, 2011. "The Rule of Law and Economic Growth: Where are We?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 673-685, May.
    14. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2000. "Financial Contagion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(1), pages 1-33, February.
    15. Jannick Damgaard & Thomas Elkjaer, 2017. "The Global FDI Network: Searching for Ultimate Investors," IMF Working Papers 2017/258, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Papaioannou, Elias, 2009. "What drives international financial flows? Politics, institutions and other determinants," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 269-281, March.
    17. Maria Siranova & M. Workie Tiruneh, 2018. "Exploding net errors and omissions as a capital flight phenomenon: the case of Slovakia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(16), pages 1866-1884, April.
    18. Bremus, Franziska & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2015. "Drivers of structural change in cross-border banking since the global financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 32-59.
    19. Thiess Buettner & Michael Overesch & Georg Wamser, 2018. "Anti profit-shifting rules and foreign direct investment," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(3), pages 553-580, June.
    20. Cragg, John G, 1971. "Some Statistical Models for Limited Dependent Variables with Application to the Demand for Durable Goods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 829-844, September.
    21. Alstadsæter, Annette & Johannesen, Niels & Zucman, Gabriel, 2018. "Who owns the wealth in tax havens? Macro evidence and implications for global inequality," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 89-100.
    22. Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andes, 1992. "The Tragedy of the Commons and Economic Growth: Why Does Capital Flow from Poor to Rich Countries?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(6), pages 1208-1231, December.
    23. Kleimeier, Stefanie & Sander, Harald & Heuchemer, Sylvia, 2013. "Financial crises and cross-border banking: New evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 884-915.
    24. Perez, M. Fabricio & Brada, Josef C. & Drabek, Zdenek, 2012. "Illicit money flows as motives for FDI," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 108-126.
    25. kant, C., 1996. "Foreign Direct Investment and Capital Flight," Princeton Studies in International Economics 80, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    26. Mario Cruz-Gonzalez & Iván Fernández-Val & Martin Weidner, 2017. "Bias corrections for probit and logit models with two-way fixed effects," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 17(3), pages 517-545, September.
    27. Výrost, Tomáš & Lyócsa, Štefan & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2015. "Granger causality stock market networks: Temporal proximity and preferential attachment," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 427(C), pages 262-276.
    28. Lorenz Emter & Martin Schmitz & Marcel Tirpák, 2019. "Cross-border banking in the EU since the crisis: What is driving the great retrenchment?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(2), pages 287-326, May.
    29. Zsolt Darvas & Pia Hüttl, 2017. "Returns on foreign assets and liabilities- exorbitant privileges and stabilising adjustments," Working Papers 22975, Bruegel.
    30. Niels Johannesen & Jukka Pirttilä, 2016. "Capital flight and development: An overview of concepts, methods, and data sources," WIDER Working Paper Series 095, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    31. Erbe, Susanne, 1985. "The flight of capital from developing countries," Intereconomics – Review of European Economic Policy (1966 - 1988), ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 20(6), pages 268-275.
    32. Claessens, Stijn & Naude, David, 1993. "Recent estimates of capital flight," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1186, The World Bank.
    33. Vinod Mishra & Russell Smyth & Tuck Cheong Tang, 2008. "Is The Balancing Item For Australia Sustainable? Evidence From A Threshold Autoregressive Model With An Autoregressive Unit Root," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(2), pages 190-198, June.
    34. Niels Johannesen & Jukka Pirttilä, 2016. "Capital flight and development: An overview of concepts, methods, and data sources," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-95, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    35. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2008. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries? An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 347-368, May.
    36. Robert J. Barro, 2015. "Convergence and Modernisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(585), pages 911-942, June.
    37. Dietrich K. Fausten & Brett Pickett, 2004. "‘Errors & Omissions’ in the Reporting of Australia's Cross‐Border Transactions," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 101-115, March.
    38. Hellmanzik, Christiane & Schmitz, Martin, 2017. "Taking gravity online: The role of virtual proximity in international finance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 164-179.
    39. Cuddington, John T., 1987. "Capital flight ," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 382-388.
    40. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 2002. "Balance-Sheet Contagion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 46-50, May.
    41. Kubelec, Chris & Sa, Filipa, 2010. "The geographical composition of national external balance sheets: 1980-2005," Bank of England working papers 384, Bank of England.
    42. Tuck Cheong Tang, 2006. "Japan's balancing item: do timing errors matter?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 81-87.
    43. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Ozdemir, 2013. "The export-output growth nexus in Japan: a bootstrap rolling window approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 639-660, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Boris Fisera & Menbere Workie Tiruneh, 2023. "Beyond the Balassa-Samuelson Effect: Do Remittances Trigger the Dutch Disease?," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 61(1), pages 23-65, January.
    2. Fisera, Boris & Workie Tiruneh, Menbere & Hojdan, David, 2021. "Currency depreciations in emerging economies: A blessing or a curse for external debt management?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 132-165.
    3. Suna Şahin, 2022. "Net Errors and Omissions Account Overview: Analysis of Selected Countries (1980-2018)," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 103-120, January.
    4. Siranova, Maria, 2024. "Statistical omissions as the stabilizing factor of net foreign assets in EU countries," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lorenz Emter & Martin Schmitz & Marcel Tirpák, 2019. "Cross-border banking in the EU since the crisis: What is driving the great retrenchment?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(2), pages 287-326, May.
    2. Heydari, Hassan & Jariani, Farzaneh, 2020. "Analyzing Effective Factors of Capital Outflow from the Middle East and North African Countries (MENA)," MPRA Paper 104547, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Seung-Gwang Baek & Doo Yong Yang, 2010. "Institutional Quality, Captal Flight and Capital Flows," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 26, pages 121-155.
    4. Barrell, Ray & Nahhas, Abdulkader, 2020. "The role of lender country factors in cross border bank lending," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    5. Alstadsæter, Annette & Johannesen, Niels & Zucman, Gabriel, 2018. "Who owns the wealth in tax havens? Macro evidence and implications for global inequality," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 89-100.
    6. Siranova, Maria, 2024. "Statistical omissions as the stabilizing factor of net foreign assets in EU countries," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    7. Tien Nguyen & Dung Phuong Hoang & Thang Ngoc Doan, 2022. "On the uncertainty-global bank linkage nexus: The moderation of crises, financial regulations, and institutional quality," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(4), pages 623-645, October.
    8. Niels Hermes & Robert Lensink & Victor Murinde, 2002. "Flight Capital and its Reversal for Development Financing," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2002-99, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Juliana D. Araujo & Povilas Lastauskas & Chris Papageorgiou, 2017. "Evolution of Bilateral Capital Flows to Developing Countries at Intensive and Extensive Margins," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(7), pages 1517-1554, October.
    10. Maria Siranova & Menbere Workie Tiruneh, 2016. "The determinants of errors and omissions in a small and open economy: The case of Slovakia," Working Papers wp73, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, revised 08 Apr 2016.
    11. Leonce Ndikumana & Mare Sarr, 2019. "Capital Flight, Foreign Direct Investment and Natural Resources in Africa," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2019-12, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    12. Ndikumana, Léonce & Sarr, Mare, 2019. "Capital flight, foreign direct investment and natural resources in Africa," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    13. Okada, Keisuke, 2013. "The interaction effects of financial openness and institutions on international capital flows," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 131-143.
    14. McCauley, Robert N. & Bénétrix, Agustín S. & McGuire, Patrick M. & von Peter, Goetz, 2019. "Financial deglobalisation in banking?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 116-131.
    15. Andrew Powell & Dilip Ratha & Sanket Mohapatra, 2002. "Capital Inflows and Capital Outflows: Measurement, Determinants, Consequences," Business School Working Papers veinticinco, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    16. Petr Janský & Miroslav Palanský, 2019. "Estimating the scale of profit shifting and tax revenue losses related to foreign direct investment," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(5), pages 1048-1103, October.
    17. Nataliia Osina, 2021. "Global governance and gross capital flows dynamics," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(3), pages 463-493, August.
    18. Nathan Sheets, 1995. "Capital flight from the countries in transition: some theory and empirical evidence," International Finance Discussion Papers 514, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2018. "Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262037165, April.
    20. Ashis Kumar Pradhan & Gourishankar S. Hiremath, 2017. "The Capital Flight From India: A Case Of Missing Woods For Trees?," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(02), pages 365-383, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Illicit capital flows; Net errors and omissions; Two-stage tobit model; Financial network;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:71:y:2021:i:c:p:955-973. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.