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Nonparametric and Semiparametric Regressions Subject to Monotonicity Constraints: Estimation and Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Tae-Hwy Lee

    (Department of Economics, University of California Riverside)

  • Yundong Tu

    (Peking University, Beijing, China)

  • Aman Ullah

    (University of California, Riverside)

Abstract

This paper considers nonparametric and semiparametric regression models subject to monotonicity constraint. We use bagging as an alternative approach to Hall and Huang (2001). Asymptotic properties of our proposed estimators and forecasts are established. Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to show their finite sample performance. An application to predicting equity premium is taken for illustration. We introduce a new forecasting evaluation criterion based on the second order stochastic dominance in the size of forecast errors and compare models over different sizes of forecast errors. Imposing monotonicity constraint can mitigate the chance of making large size forecast errors.

Suggested Citation

  • Tae-Hwy Lee & Yundong Tu & Aman Ullah, 2014. "Nonparametric and Semiparametric Regressions Subject to Monotonicity Constraints: Estimation and Forecasting," Working Papers 201404, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucr:wpaper:201404
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    14. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Francis X. Diebold & Minchul Shin, 2017. "Assessing point forecast accuracy by stochastic error distance," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6-9), pages 588-598, October.
    2. Lee Tae-Hwy & Wang He & Xi Zhou & Zhang Ru, 2023. "Density Forecast of Financial Returns Using Decomposition and Maximum Entropy," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 57-83, January.
    3. Tu, Yundong & Xie, Xinling, 2023. "Penetrating sporadic return predictability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(1).
    4. Fu, Zhonghao & Hong, Yongmiao, 2019. "A model-free consistent test for structural change in regression possibly with endogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 211(1), pages 206-242.
    5. Zheng Li & Guannan Liu & Qi Li, 2017. "Nonparametric Knn estimation with monotone constraints," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6-9), pages 988-1006, October.
    6. Diebold, Francis X. & Shin, Minchul, 2015. "Assessing point forecast accuracy by stochastic loss distance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 37-38.
    7. Tu, Yundong & Liang, Han-Ying & Wang, Qiying, 2022. "Nonparametric inference for quantile cointegrations with stationary covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(2), pages 453-482.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Local monotonicity; Bagging; Asymptotic mean squared errors; Second order stochastic dominance; Equity premium prediction.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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