IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ucn/oapubs/10197-226.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Technology shocks and hours worked : checking for robust conclusions

Author

Listed:
  • Karl Whelan

Abstract

This paper presents some new results on the effects of technology shocks on hours worked based on structural VAR specifications containing various measures of US productivity growth and hours. These specifications can produce different answers depending on which sector of the economy is examined, which transformation of hours worked is used, and on how many lags are chosen for the VAR. However, it is shown that the results from the stochastic trend specification used by Jordi Gali (1999) are robust across changes in data definition and lag length, while the results from the per capita hours specification of Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Vigfusson (2003) are not. These results provide support for Gali's findings that technology shocks have a negative impact effect on hours worked and that these shocks play a limited role in generating the business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Karl Whelan, 2004. "Technology shocks and hours worked : checking for robust conclusions," Open Access publications 10197/226, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucn:oapubs:10197/226
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/226
    File Function: Open Access version, 2004
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Miles S. Kimball & John G. Fernald & Susanto Basu, 2006. "Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1418-1448, December.
    3. Jordi Gali, 1999. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 249-271, March.
    4. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    5. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, pages 111-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2003. "What Happens After a Technology Shock?," NBER Working Papers 9819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Galí, Jordi & Rabanal, Pau, 2004. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBC Model Fit Post-War US Data?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4522, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Athena T. Theodorou, 2003. "The use of long-run restrictions for the identification of technology shocks," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 85(Nov), pages 53-66.
    9. Fernald, John G., 2007. "Trend breaks, long-run restrictions, and contractionary technology improvements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2467-2485, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marcos Sanso-Navarro, 2012. "Broken trend stationarity of hours worked," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(30), pages 3955-3964, October.
    2. Mumtaz, Haroon & Zanetti, Francesco, 2012. "Neutral technology shocks and employment dynamics: results based on an RBC identification scheme," Bank of England working papers 453, Bank of England.
    3. Klein, Mathias & Krause, Christopher, 2015. "Technology-Labor and Fiscal Spending Crowding-in Puzzles: The Role of Interpersonal Comparison," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113075, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Cantore, C. & Ferroni, F. & León-Ledesma, M A., 2011. "Interpreting the Hours-Technology time-varying relationship," Working papers 351, Banque de France.
    5. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Tripier, Fabien, 2015. "Are Unit Root Tests Useful In The Debate Over The (Non)Stationarity Of Hours Worked?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 167-188, January.
    6. Federico S. Mandelman & Francesco Zanetti, 2008. "Estimating general equilibrium models: an application with labour market frictions," Technical Books, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, edition 1, number 1, April.
    7. Don J. Webber & Michael Horswell, 2009. "Microeconomic foundations of geographical variations in labour productivity," Working Papers 0913, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    8. Cristiano Cantore & Vasco J. Gabriel & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Bo Yang, 2013. "The science and art of DSGE modelling: I – construction and Bayesian estimation," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 18, pages 411-440, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Rebei, Nooman, 2014. "What (really) accounts for the fall in hours after a technology shock?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 330-352.
    10. Cristiano Cantore & Miguel León-Ledesma & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2014. "Shocking Stuff: Technology, Hours, And Factor Substitution," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 108-128, February.
    11. Jordi Gali, 2005. "Trends in hours, balanced growth, and the role of technology in the business cycle," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Jul), pages 459-486.
    12. Federico S. Mandelman & Francesco Zanetti, 2008. "Technology shocks, employment, and labor market frictions," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2008-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    13. Alexiadis, Stilianos & Eleftheriou, Konstantinos & Nijkamp, Peter, 2013. "Technology adoption within a search model: Evidence from OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 137-148.
    14. Kerstin Hotte & Melline Somers & Angelos Theodorakopoulos, 2022. "Technology and jobs: A systematic literature review," Papers 2204.01296, arXiv.org.
    15. Selgin, George & Beckworth, David & Bahadir, Berrak, 2015. "The productivity gap: Monetary policy, the subprime boom, and the post-2001 productivity surge," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 189-207.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Maynard, Alex & Pesavento, Elena, 2011. "Sensitivity of Impulse Responses to Small Low-Frequency Comovements: Reconciling the Evidence on the Effects of Technology Shocks," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(4), pages 455-467.
    2. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2008. "Productivity, External Balance, and Exchange Rates: Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism among G7 Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006, pages 117-194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2010. "Investment shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 132-145, March.
    4. Dufourt, Frederic, 2005. "Demand and productivity components of business cycles: Estimates and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1089-1105, September.
    5. Kim, Sangho & Lim, Hyunjoon & Park, Donghyun, 2010. "Productivity and Employment in a Developing Country: Some Evidence from Korea," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 514-522, April.
    6. Jordi Gali & Pau Rabanal, 2004. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBS Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data?," NBER Working Papers 10636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Holly, S. & Petrella, I., 2008. "Factor demand linkages and the business cycle: Interpreting aggregate fluctuations as sectoral fluctuations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0827, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    8. Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2006. "The Source of Historical Economic Fluctuations: An Analysis Using Long-Run Restrictions," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004, pages 17-73, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Shingo Watanabe, 2012. "The Role Of Technology And Nontechnology Shocks In Business Cycles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1287-1321, November.
    10. Gubler, Matthias & Hertweck, Matthias S., 2013. "Commodity price shocks and the business cycle: Structural evidence for the U.S," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 324-352.
    11. Liu, Zheng & Phaneuf, Louis, 2007. "Technology shocks and labor market dynamics: Some evidence and theory," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2534-2553, November.
    12. Francis, Neville & Ramey, Valerie A., 2005. "Is the technology-driven real business cycle hypothesis dead? Shocks and aggregate fluctuations revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1379-1399, November.
    13. Régis Barnichon, 2007. "Productivity, Aggregate Demand and Unemployment Fluctuations," CEP Discussion Papers dp0819, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    14. Zheng Liu & Louis Phaneuf, 2008. "Do Nominal Rigidities Matter for the Transmission of Technology Shocks?," Cahiers de recherche 0837, CIRPEE.
    15. Cristiano Cantore & Miguel León-Ledesma & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2014. "Shocking Stuff: Technology, Hours, And Factor Substitution," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 108-128, February.
    16. Rujin, Svetlana, 2024. "Labor market institutions and technology-induced labor adjustment along the extensive and intensive margins," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    17. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    18. Guido Lorenzoni, 2009. "A Theory of Demand Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2050-2084, December.
    19. Dupaigne, Martial & Feve, Patrick & Matheron, Julien, 2007. "Some analytics on bias in DSVARs," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 32-38, October.
    20. Virgiliu Midrigan, 2010. "Is Firm Pricing State or Time Dependent? Evidence from U.S. Manufacturing," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(3), pages 643-656, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Technology--Economic aspects; Hours of labor; Industrial productivity--Mathematical models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucn:oapubs:10197/226. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nicolas Clifton (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/educdie.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.