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The Forecasting Ability of Factor Models of the Term Structure of IRS Markets

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Abstract

Using estimated principal components as factors, three-factors models are shown to produce forecasts comparable to those of autoregressive models for 2 to 10 year zaero coupon interest rates IRS markets both, for short- and medium- term forecasting horizons. Evidence is provided for the Deutsche mark, Spanish peseta, Japanese yen and US Dollar. Forecast from factor models are also shown to preserve the correlation matrix of interest rates across a given term structure, an important proprerty regarding risk management. The result is quite striking, because factor models are purely static, and forecasts for the factors must be obtained in advance of interest rate forecast.factor models

Suggested Citation

  • Pilar Abad & Alfonso Novales, 2002. "The Forecasting Ability of Factor Models of the Term Structure of IRS Markets," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0221, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:0221
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    1. Niffikeer, Cindy I. & Hewins, Robin D. & Flavell, Richard B., 2000. "A synthetic factor approach to the estimation of value-at-risk of a portfolio of interest rate swaps," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(12), pages 1903-1932, December.
    2. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-380, October.
    3. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-395, October.
    4. Knez, Peter J & Litterman, Robert & Scheinkman, Jose Alexandre, 1994. "Explorations into Factors Explaining Money Market Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1861-1882, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Factor models; Term structure of interest rates; Principal components; Swap markets; IRS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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