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Does A Higher Population Growth Cause Deforestation? : A Study of Malawi's Rapid Deforestation

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  • Annie Mwai Mapulanga
  • Hisahiro Naito

Abstract

Using Malawi's satellite images of land use/land cover change, weather data and population data at each cluster and Population Housing Census (PHC) data, this paper estimates the causal effect of the growth of population of local residents on deforestation in Malawi. We use the average number of births in the census ten years ago as the instrumental variable to control the endogeneity of population growth. The results illustrate strong empirical evidence that high population growth of local residents increases deforestation through expansion of agricultural land. The results show that a 1 percent increase in population growth increases the deforestation rate by 2.7 percent through the increase in agricultural land. In terms of land use changes, a one hectare gain in agriculture land results in a 0.57 hectare loss in forest land cover.

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  • Annie Mwai Mapulanga & Hisahiro Naito, 2018. "Does A Higher Population Growth Cause Deforestation? : A Study of Malawi's Rapid Deforestation," Tsukuba Economics Working Papers 2018-005, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Tsukuba.
    • Handle: RePEc:tsu:tewpjp:2018-005
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    1. Edward B. Barbier, 2004. "Explaining Agricultural Land Expansion and Deforestation in Developing Countries," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1347-1353.
    2. Cropper, Maureen & Griffiths, Charles, 1994. "The Interaction of Population Growth and Environmental Quality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 250-254, May.
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