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The economics in 'Global Health 2035': a sensitivity analysis of the value of a life year estimates

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  • Chang, Angela.Y
  • Hammitt, James K.
  • Resch, S.C
  • Robinson, Lisa A.

Abstract

In “Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation,” The Lancet Commission on Investing in Health (CIH) adds the value of increased life expectancy to the value of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) when assessing national well-being. To value changes in life expectancy, the CIH relies on several strong assumptions to bridge gaps in the empirical research. It finds that the value of a life year (VLY) averages 2.3 times GDP per capita for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) assuming the changes in life expectancy they experienced from 2000 to 2011 are permanent. We investigate the sensitivity of this estimate to the underlying assumptions, including the effects of income, age, and life expectancy, and the sequencing of the calculations. We find that reasonable alternative assumptions regarding the effects of income, age, and life expectancy may reduce the VLY estimates to 0.2 to 2.1 times GDP per capita for LMICs. Removing the reduction for young children increases the VLY, while reversing the sequencing of the calculations reduces the VLY

Suggested Citation

  • Chang, Angela.Y & Hammitt, James K. & Resch, S.C & Robinson, Lisa A., 2017. "The economics in 'Global Health 2035': a sensitivity analysis of the value of a life year estimates," TSE Working Papers 17-756, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:31410
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lisa A. Robinson & James K. Hammitt, 2016. "Valuing Reductions in Fatal Illness Risks: Implications of Recent Research," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(8), pages 1039-1052, August.
    2. Trudy Ann Cameron, 2010. "Euthanizing the Value of a Statistical Life," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 4(2), pages 161-178, Summer.
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    5. Hammitt James K. & Robinson Lisa A, 2011. "The Income Elasticity of the Value per Statistical Life: Transferring Estimates between High and Low Income Populations," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-29, January.
    6. Blomquist, Glenn C. & Dickie, Mark & O'Conor, Richard M., 2011. "Willingness to pay for improving fatality risks and asthma symptoms: Values for children and adults of all ages," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 410-425, May.
    7. Evans, Mary F. & Smith, V. Kerry, 2006. "Do we really understand the age-VSL relationship?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 242-261, August.
    8. World Bank, 2013. "World Development Indicators 2013," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13191.
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    3. Lamontagne, Erik & Over, Mead & Stover, John, 2019. "The economic returns of ending the AIDS epidemic as a public health threat," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 104-108.

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