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The dynamics of innovation and risk

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  • Biais, Bruno
  • Rochet, Jean-Charles
  • Woolley, Paul

Abstract

We study the dynamics of an innovative industry when agents learn about the likelihood of negative shocks. Managers can exert risk-prevention effort to mitigate the consequences of shocks. If no shock occurs, confidence improves, attracting managers to the innovative sector. But, when condence becomes high, inefficient managers exerting low risk-prevention effort also enter. This stimulates growth, while reducing risk-prevention. The longer the boom, the larger the losses if a shock occurs. While these dynamics arise in the first-best, asymmetric information generates excessive entry of inefficient managers, earning informational rents, inflating the innovative sector and increasing its vulnerability.

Suggested Citation

  • Biais, Bruno & Rochet, Jean-Charles & Woolley, Paul, 2013. "The dynamics of innovation and risk," TSE Working Papers 13-448, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:27746
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    Cited by:

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    5. Yuming Zhai & Zhenghuan Cai & Han Lin & Ming Yuan & Ye Mao & Mingchuan Yu, 2022. "Does better environmental, social, and governance induce better corporate green innovation: The mediating role of financing constraints," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(5), pages 1513-1526, September.
    6. Jianxing Wei & Tong Xu, 2018. "A Model of Bank Credit Cycles," 2018 Meeting Papers 610, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Ni, Jian & Xu, Yue & Shi, Jia & Li, Jiali, 2024. "Product innovation in a supply chain with information asymmetry: Is more private information always worse?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 314(1), pages 229-240.
    8. Shahab, Yasir & Tianzi, Wang & Hussain, Tanveer & Kumar, Satish, 2023. "Foreign experience and audit report lag," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    9. Deepal Basak & Mr. Yunhui Zhao, 2018. "Does Financial Tranquility Call for Stringent Regulation?," IMF Working Papers 2018/123, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Enrico Perotti & Magdalena Rola-Janicka, 2022. "The Good, the Bad, and the Missed Boom," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(11), pages 5025-5056.

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