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Shakeouts And Market Crashes

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  • Alessandro Barbarino
  • Boyan Jovanovic

Abstract

This article provides a microfoundation for the rise in optimism that seems to precede market crashes. Small, young markets are more likely to experience stock-price run-ups and crashes. We use a Zeira-Rob type of model in which demand size is uncertain. Optimism then grows rationally if traders' prior distribution over market size has a decreasing hazard. Such prior beliefs are appropriate if most new markets are duds and only a few reach a large size. The crash occurs when capacity outstrips demand. As an illustration, for the period 1971-2001 we fit the model to the Telecom sector. Copyright 2007 by the Economics Department Of The University Of Pennsylvania And Osaka University Institute Of Social And Economic Research Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Barbarino & Boyan Jovanovic, 2007. "Shakeouts And Market Crashes," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(2), pages 385-420, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:48:y:2007:i:2:p:385-420
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2003. "Bubbles and Crashes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 173-204, January.
    2. Joseph Zeira, 2000. "Informational overshooting, booms and crashes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Apr.
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    6. Zeira, Joseph, 1987. "Investment as a Process of Search," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 204-210, February.
    7. Caplin, Andrew & Leahy, John, 1994. "Business as Usual, Market Crashes, and Wisdom after the Fact," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 548-565, June.
    8. Boldrin, Michele & Levine, David K., 2001. "Growth Cycles and Market Crashes," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 13-39, January.
    9. Ms. Petya Koeva Brooks, 2000. "The Facts About Time: To-Build," IMF Working Papers 2000/138, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Horvath, Michael & Schivardi, Fabiano & Woywode, Michael, 2001. "On industry life-cycles: delay, entry, and shakeout in beer brewing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1023-1052, July.
    11. Rafael Rob, 1991. "Learning and Capacity Expansion under Demand Uncertainty," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(4), pages 655-675.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Oscar Gutiérrez & Francisco Ruiz-Aliseda, 2011. "Real options with unknown-date events," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 171-198, May.
    2. Bruno Biais & Jean-Charles Rochet & Paul Woolley, 2015. "Dynamics of Innovation and Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(5), pages 1353-1380.
    3. André van Stel & Andrew Burke, 2008. "The Entrepreneurial Adjustment Process in Disequilibrium," Scales Research Reports H200809, EIM Business and Policy Research.
    4. Biais, Bruno & Rochet, Jean-Charles & Woolley, Paul, 2010. "Innovations, Rents and Risk," TSE Working Papers 10-200, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    5. Plehn-Dujowich, Jose M., 2009. "Entry and exit by new versus existing firms," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 214-222, March.
    6. Emin M. Dinlersoz & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo, 2005. "The diffusion of electronic business in the United States," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Jan), pages 11-34.
    7. Biais, Bruno & Rochet, Jean-Charles & Woolley, Paul, 2009. "Rents, learning and risk in the financial sector and other innovative industries," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24417, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Sylvain Champonnois, 2011. "The limits of market discipline: proprietary trading and aggregate risk," 2011 Meeting Papers 1013, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Geng Li, 2006. "Learning by investing--embodied technology and business cycles," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Tomura, Hajime, 2010. "International capital flows and expectation-driven boom-bust cycles in the housing market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1993-2009, October.
    11. Chia‐Hui Chen & Junichiro Ishida, 2021. "A War of Attrition with Experimenting Players," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(2), pages 239-269, June.
    12. Óscar Gutiérrez & Francisco Ruiz‐Aliseda, 2009. "Entry Patterns Over The Product Life Cycle," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(5), pages 594-610, September.
    13. Hajime Tomura, 2008. "A Model of Housing Boom and Bust in a Small Open Economy," Staff Working Papers 08-9, Bank of Canada.
    14. Zhu Wang, 2008. "Income Distribution, Market Size and the Evolution of Industry," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 542-565, July.
    15. Bertomeu, Jeremy, 2009. "Endogenous shakeouts," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 435-440, May.
    16. Biais, Bruno & Rochet, Jean-Charles & Woolley, Paul, 2009. "The Lifecycle of the Financial Sector and Other Speculative Industries," TSE Working Papers 09-031, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    17. Biais, Bruno & Rochet, Jean-Charles & Woolley, Paul, 2010. "Innovations, Rents and Risk," TSE Working Papers 10-200, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    18. Boris Podobnik & Davor Horvatic & Alexander M. Petersen & Branko Urov{s}evi'c & H. Eugene Stanley, 2010. "Bankruptcy risk model and empirical tests," Papers 1011.2670, arXiv.org.
    19. Meagher, Kieron J. & Wong, Arlene & Zauner, Klaus G., 2020. "A competitive analysis of fail fast: Shakeout and uncertainty about consumer tastes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 589-600.
    20. Emin M. Dinlersoz & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo, 2004. "The diffusion of electronic business in the U.S," Working Papers 2004-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    21. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:12:y:2005:i:10:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. OHYAMA Atsushi, 2017. "Industry Growth through Spinoffs and Startups," Discussion papers 17057, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    23. Kumar, Praveen & Langberg, Nisan, 2013. "Information manipulation and rational investment booms and busts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(4), pages 408-425.

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    JEL classification:

    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • L0 - Industrial Organization - - General

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