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Heterogeneous Impacts of ACA-Medicaid Expansion on Insurance and Labor Market Outcomes in the American South

Author

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  • Vinish Shrestha

    (Department of Economics, Towson University)

Abstract

The expansion of Medicaid through the Affordable Care Act (ACA-Medicaid) has sparked debates on its impact on local labor markets. This study delves into the heterogeneous im- pacts of ACA-Medicaid expansion on insurance and labor market outcomes in the American South. Utilizing the modified version of Causal Forest approach, the research uncovers significant heterogeneity in treatment effects. Notably, counties ranking within the top 10 percent based on the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimates exhibit a reduction in the unin- sured rate by approximately 13 percentage points more than the average during the year of the reform. Moreover, the estimated heterogeneity suggest evidence of increased unemployment rates, decreased total employment, and a contraction of labor force in the years following the expansion. Such effects are particularly concentrated in food/accommodation and retail/trade sectors. These findings offer insights for refining and optimizing healthcare reform strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Vinish Shrestha, 2024. "Heterogeneous Impacts of ACA-Medicaid Expansion on Insurance and Labor Market Outcomes in the American South," Working Papers 2024-08, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2024-08
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Medicaid expansion; Labor market outcomes; Heterogeneous effects; Conditional average treatment effect (CATE); Causal Forests (CF); Causal Machine Learning.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Other

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