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A State Space Modeling for Proactive Management in Equity Investment

Author

Listed:
  • Akihiko Takahashi

    (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo)

  • Soichiro Takahashi

    (GCI Asset Management, Inc.)

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel state-space approach to explain stock market dynamics driven by different types of trading, which leads to a new promising scheme for proactive risk management in financial investment. Particularly, it is assumed that the current price changes are formulated through daily trading by multiple types of traders, each of whom follows a specific investment strategy based on technical indicators and a fuzzy logic using past data of stock prices, volumes and yield curves. Moreover, the current price changes are represented by a linear combination of those multiple trading types, where the coefficients corresponding with the size of impact on the price changes are regarded as time-varying state variables to be sequentially estimated under a state-space framework. Thereby, this work develops a new factor decomposition method on price changes from a perspective of different traders' demand and supply to analyze the current situations and potential risks in financial markets. In empirical experiments, it is shown that the implementation of particle filtering algorithm makes it possible to replicate market price changes. Further, new signals based on the estimated states are developed, which are applied to proactive risk management in financial investment. Especially, it has been found that the demands of yield curve-based traders subtracting those of trend-followers could be a promising signal of stock market crashes, which has successfully enhanced simple buy-and-hold strategy of SP, as well as constant proportion strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Akihiko Takahashi & Soichiro Takahashi, 2022. "A State Space Modeling for Proactive Management in Equity Investment," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1197, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    • Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2022cf1197
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    File URL: http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2022/2022cf1197.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Masafumi Nakano & Akihiko Takahashi & Muhammad Soichiro Takahashi, 2017. "Creating Investment Scheme with State Space Modeling," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1038, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    2. Souta Nakatani & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Taiga Saito & Akihiko Takahashi, 2020. "Interest Rate Model with Investor Attitude and Text Mining," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1152, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    3. Masafumi Nakano & Akihiko Takahashi & Soichiro Takahashi, 2017. "Fuzzy Logic-based Portfolio Selection with Particle Filtering and Anomaly Detection," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1037, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    4. Masafumi Nakano & Akihiko Takahashi & Soichiro Takahashi, 2017. "Fuzzy Logic-based Portfolio Selection with Particle Filtering and Anomaly Detection," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1037, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    5. Masafumi Nakano & Akihiko Takahashi & Soichiro Takahashi, 2017. "Robust Technical Trading with Fuzzy Knowledge-based Systems," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1053, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    6. Masafumi Nakano & Akihiko Takahashi & Soichiro Takahashi, 2017. "Creating Investment Scheme with State Space Modeling," CARF F-Series cf406, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    7. Fileccia, Gaetano & Sgarra, Carlo, 2018. "A particle filtering approach to oil futures price calibration and forecasting," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 21-34.
    8. Masafumi Nakano & Akihiko Takahashi, 2020. "A new investment method with AutoEncoder: Applications to crypto currencies(Forthcoming in "Expert Systems with Applications")," CARF F-Series CARF-F-489, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    9. Souta Nakatani & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Taiga Saito & Akihiko Takahashi, 2020. "Interest Rate Model with Investor Attitude and Text Mining (Published in IEEE Access)," CARF F-Series CARF-F-479, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
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    Cited by:

    1. Daiya Mita & Akihiko Takahashi, 2024. "A New Equity Investment Strategy with Artificial Intelligence, Multi Factors, and Technical Indicators," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1230, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    2. Daiya Mita & Akihiko Takahashi, 2024. "A New Equity Investment Strategy with Artificial Intelligence, Multi Factors, and Technical Indicators," CARF F-Series CARF-F-588, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    3. Daiya Mita & Akihiko Takahashi, 2022. "Multi-Agent Model Based Proactive Risk Management For Equity Investment," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1207, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.

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