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Volatility Spillovers Between Crude Oil Futures Returns and Oil Company Stocks Return

Author

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  • Chia-Lin Chang

    (Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University)

  • Michael McAleer

    (Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute and Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE), Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)

  • Roengchai Tansuchat

    (Faculty of Economics, Maejo University and Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the volatility spillovers between the returns on crude oil futures and oil company stocks using alternative multivariate GARCH models, namely the CCC model of Bollerslev (1990), VARMA-GARCH model of Ling and McAleer (2003), and VARMA-AGARCH model of McAleer et al. (2008). The paper investigates WTI crude oil futures returns and the stock returns of ten oil companies, which comprise the "supermajor" group of oil companies, namely Exxon Mobil (XOM), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS), Chevron Corporation (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), BP (BP) and Total S.A. (TOT), and four other large oil and gas companies, namely Petrobras (PBRA), Lukoil (LKOH), Surgutneftegas (SNGS), and Eni S.p.A. (ENI). Estimates of the conditional correlations between the WTI crude oil futures returns and oil company stock returns are found to be quite low using the CCC model, while the VARMA-GARCH and VARMA-AGARCH models suggest no significant volatility spillover effects in any pairs of returns. The paper also presents evidence of the asymmetric effects of negative and positive shocks of equal magnitude on the conditional variances in all pairs of returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Roengchai Tansuchat, 2009. "Volatility Spillovers Between Crude Oil Futures Returns and Oil Company Stocks Return," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-639, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  • Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2009cf639
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Tansuchat, Roengchai, 2013. "Conditional correlations and volatility spillovers between crude oil and stock index returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 116-138.
    2. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Tansuchat, Roengchai, 2011. "Crude oil hedging strategies using dynamic multivariate GARCH," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 912-923, September.
    3. El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed & Jouini, Jamel & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Volatility spillovers between oil prices and stock sector returns: Implications for portfolio management," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1387-1405.
    4. Mushtaq Hussain Khan & Junaid Ahmed & Mazhar Mughal & Imtiaz Hussain Khan, 2023. "Oil price volatility and stock returns: Evidence from three oil‐price wars," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3162-3182, July.
    5. Domingo Rodríguez Benavides & Nancy Muller Durán & José Antonio Climent Hernández, 2021. "Spillovers entre los principales Mercados Accionarios de Latinoamérica, Estados Unidos y el Mercado Petrolero," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(1), pages 1-18, Enero - M.
    6. Thuraisamy, Kannan S. & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher, 2013. "The relationship between Asian equity and commodity futures markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 67-75.
    7. repec:eco:journ2:2017-04-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Muhammad Irfan Malik & Abdul Rashid, 2017. "Return And Volatility Spillover Between Sectoral Stock And Oil Price: Evidence From Pakistan Stock Exchange," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(02), pages 1-22, June.
    9. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Jouini, Jamel & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2012. "On the impacts of oil price fluctuations on European equity markets: Volatility spillover and hedging effectiveness," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 611-617.
    10. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Cunado, Juncal & Filis, George & Gabauer, David & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2018. "Oil volatility, oil and gas firms and portfolio diversification," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 499-515.
    11. Khoo De Kai & Ismail Bin Abd Rahman, 2018. "The Impact of Financial Indicators towards Stock Returns of Finance Companies Listed on Bursa Malaysiae," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 8(3), pages 128-140, July.
    12. Lv, Xin & Lien, Donald & Yu, Chang, 2020. "Who affects who? Oil price against the stock return of oil-related companies: Evidence from the U.S. and China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 85-100.
    13. Mo, Di & Gupta, Rakesh & Li, Bin & Singh, Tarlok, 2018. "The macroeconomic determinants of commodity futures volatility: Evidence from Chinese and Indian markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 543-560.
    14. Zhifang He & Jiaqi Chen & Fangzhao Zhou & Guoqing Zhang & Fenghua Wen, 2022. "Oil price uncertainty and the risk‐return relation in stock markets: Evidence from oil‐importing and oil‐exporting countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1154-1172, January.
    15. Su, Chi-Wei & Huang, Shi-Wen & Qin, Meng & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Does crude oil price stimulate economic policy uncertainty in BRICS?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    16. Domingo Rodríguez Benavides & Nancy Muller Durán & José Antonio Climent Hernández, 2021. "Spillovers entre los principales Mercados Accionarios de Latinoamérica, Estados Unidos y el Mercado Petrolero," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(1), pages 1-18, Enero - M.
    17. Borg, Elin & Kits, Ilya & Junttila, Juha & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2022. "Dependence between renewable energy related critical metal futures and producer equity markets across varying market conditions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 879-892.
    18. Šoba, Oldřich & Širůček, Martin & Havíř, Tomáš, 2013. "Závislost cen akcií ropných společností na ceně ropy [The dependence of oil company's stock price on oil price]," MPRA Paper 62899, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2013.

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