IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eaa/ijaeqs/v1y2004i1_8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Oil Price Shocks and Emerging Stock Markets: A Generalized VAR Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Maghyereh, A.

Abstract

This study examines the dynamic linkages between crude oil price shocks and stock market returns in 22 emerging economies. The vector autoregression (VAR) analysis is carried on daily data for the period spanned from January 1, 1998 to April 31, 2004. This study utilized the generalized approach to forecast error variance decomposition and impulse response analysis in favor of the more traditional orthogonalized approach. Inconsistent with prior research on developed economies, the findings imply that oil shocks have no significant impact on stock index returns in emerging economies. The results also suggest that stock market returns in these economies do not rationally signal shocks in the crude oil market.

Suggested Citation

  • Maghyereh, A., 2004. "Oil Price Shocks and Emerging Stock Markets: A Generalized VAR Approach," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(2), pages 27-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:eaa:ijaeqs:v:1:y2004:i:1_8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.usc.es/economet/reviews/ijaeqs122.pdf
    Download Restriction: No
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    3. Perron, Pierre, 1988. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series : Further evidence from a new approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 297-332.
    4. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    5. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
    6. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    7. Darby, Michael R, 1982. "The Price of Oil and World Inflation and Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(4), pages 738-751, September.
    8. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    9. Hoffman, Dennis L & Rasche, Robert H, 1996. "Assessing Forecast Performance in a Cointegrated System," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 495-517, Sept.-Oct.
    10. Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
    11. Roger D. Huang & Ronald W. Masulis & Hans R. Stoll, 1996. "Energy shocks and financial markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, February.
    12. Leigh, Andrew & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2003. "What do Financial Markets Think of War in Iraq?," Research Papers 1785, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    13. James L. Pierce & Jared J. Enzler, 1974. "The Effects of External Inflationary Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 5(1), pages 13-62.
    14. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    15. Robert H. Rasche & John A. Tatom, 1977. "The effects of the new energy regime on economic capacity, production, and prices," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 59(May), pages 2-12.
    16. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
    17. Atsuyuki Naka & David Tufte, 1997. "Examining impulse response functions in cointegrated systems," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(12), pages 1593-1603.
    18. Clements, M.P. & Hendry, D.F., 1992. "Forecasting in Cointegrated Systems," Economics Series Working Papers 99139, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tsangyao Chang & Wenshwo Fang & Li-Fang Wen, 2001. "Energy consumption, employment, output, and temporal causality: evidence from Taiwan based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(8), pages 1045-1056.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Jürgen Wolters & Uwe Hassler, 2006. "Unit Root Testing," Springer Books, in: Olaf Hübler & Jachim Frohn (ed.), Modern Econometric Analysis, chapter 4, pages 41-56, Springer.
    4. Tsangyao Chang & WenRong Liu & Steven Caudill, 2004. "A re-examination of Wagner's law for ten countries based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 577-589.
    5. Dekker, Arie & Sen, Kunal & Young, Martin R., 2001. "Equity market linkages in the Asia Pacific region: A comparison of the orthogonalised and generalised VAR approaches," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-33.
    6. Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2001. "Oil price shocks, stock market, economic activity and employment in Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 511-532, September.
    7. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    8. Lin, Yingqian & Tu, Yundong, 2020. "Robust inference for spurious regressions and cointegrations involving processes moderately deviated from a unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 52-65.
    9. Myers, Robert J., 1994. "Time Series Econometrics and Commodity Price Analysis: A Review," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 62(02), pages 1-15, August.
    10. Pami Dua, 2008. "Analysis of Consumers’ Perceptions of Buying Conditions for Houses," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 335-350, November.
    11. Amano, R. A. & van Norden, S., 1998. "Oil prices and the rise and fall of the US real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 299-316, April.
    12. Peter C. B. Phillips & Zhijie Xiao, 1998. "A Primer on Unit Root Testing," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 423-470, December.
    13. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 1998. "Temporal causality and the inflation-productivity relationship: Evidence from eight low inflation OECD countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 117-135.
    14. Ghosal, Vivek & Gallo, Joseph, 2001. "The cyclical behavior of the Department of Justice's antitrust enforcement activity," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 27-54, January.
    15. Surajit Deb, 2003. "Terms of Trade and Supply Response of Indian Agriculture: Analysis in Cointegration Framework," Working papers 115, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    16. W A Razzak, 2007. "A Perspective on Unit Root and Cointegration in Applied Macroeconomics," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(1), pages 77-102.
    17. Myers, Robert J., 1992. "Time Series Econometrics and Commodity Price Analysis," 1992 Conference (36th), February 10-13, 1992, Canberra, Australia 146550, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    18. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2001. "Demographic changes, labor effort and economic growth: empirical evidence from Greece," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 169-188, February.
    19. Hondroyiannis, George & Lolos, Sarantis & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2005. "Financial markets and economic growth in Greece, 1986-1999," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 173-188, April.
    20. Pami Dua & Nishita Raje & Satyananda Sahoo, 2004. "Interest Rate Modeling and Forecasting in India," Occasional papers 3, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil Prices; Emerging stock markets; VAR model.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eaa:ijaeqs:v:1:y2004:i:1_8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: M. Carmen Guisan (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.