IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tiu/tiutis/8da07e25-a1e7-4d91-8829-1a152aa1d5f9.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Government and Central Bank Interaction under uncertainty : A Differential Games Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Engwerda, Jacob

    (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)

  • Mahmoudinia, D.

    (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)

  • Isfahani, Rahim Dalali

Abstract

Today, debt stabilization in an uncertain environment is an important issue. In particular, the question how fiscal and monetary authorities should deal with this uncertainty is of much importance. Especially for some developing countries such as Iran, in which on average 60 percent of government revenues comes from oil, and consequently uncertainty about oil prices has a large effect on budget planning, this is a significant question. For this reason, we extend in this paper the wellknown debt stabilization game introduced by Tabellini (1986). We incorporate deterministic noise into that framework. Also we solve this extended game under a Non-cooperative, Cooperative and Stackelberg setting assuming a feedback information structure. The main result shows that under all three regimes, more active policies are used to track debt to its equilibrium level and the smaller this equilibrium level becomes, the more fiscal and monetary authorities are concerned about noise. Furthermore, the best-response policy configuration if policymakers are confronted with uncertainty seems to depend on the level of anticipated uncertainty.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Engwerda, Jacob & Mahmoudinia, D. & Isfahani, Rahim Dalali, 2016. "Government and Central Bank Interaction under uncertainty : A Differential Games Approach," Other publications TiSEM 8da07e25-a1e7-4d91-8829-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiutis:8da07e25-a1e7-4d91-8829-1a152aa1d5f9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://pure.uvt.nl/ws/portalfiles/portal/11022577/2016_012.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
    2. Nash, John, 1953. "Two-Person Cooperative Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 21(1), pages 128-140, April.
    3. Engwerda, Jacob & van Aarle, Bas & Plasmans, Joseph & Weeren, Arie, 2013. "Debt stabilization games in the presence of risk premia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2525-2546.
    4. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Francesco Giuli & Marco Manzo, 2009. "Policy uncertainty, symbiosis, and the optimal fiscal and monetary conservativeness," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 461-474, November.
    5. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Brian Griffiths & Geoffrey E. Wood (ed.), Monetarism in the United Kingdom, pages 15-41, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Douglas Hostland & David Dupuis, "undated". "The Implications of Parameter Uncertainty for Medium-Term Fiscal Planning," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 2001-21, Department of Finance Canada.
    7. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Debora Di Gioacchino, 2008. "Fiscal-monetary policy coordination and debt management: a two-stage analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 35(4), pages 433-448, September.
    8. Tabellini, Guido, 1986. "Money, debt and deficits in a dynamic game," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 427-442, December.
    9. van Aarle, B. & Bovenberg, A.L. & Raith, M., 1995. "Monetary and fiscal policy interaction and government debt stabilization," Discussion Paper 1995-1, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    10. Mercado, P. Ruben & Kendrick, David A., 2000. "Caution in macroeconomic policy: uncertainty and the relative intensity of policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 37-41, July.
    11. Stefan Collignon, 2012. "Fiscal Policy Rules And The Sustainability Of Public Debt In Europe," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 539-567, May.
    12. Martin J. Osborne & Ariel Rubinstein, 1994. "A Course in Game Theory," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262650401, April.
    13. Giuli, Francesco, 2010. "Robust Policies In A Sticky Information Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 311-342, June.
    14. van Aarle, Bas & Lans Bovenberg, A. & Raith, Matthias G., 1997. "Is there a tragedy of a common central bank? A dynamic analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 417-447.
    15. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    16. Nash, John, 1950. "The Bargaining Problem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 18(2), pages 155-162, April.
    17. Togo, Eriko, 2007. "Coordinating public debt management with fiscal and monetary policies : an analytical framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4369, The World Bank.
    18. Dixit, Avinash & Lambertini, Luisa, 2003. "Symbiosis of monetary and fiscal policies in a monetary union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 235-247, August.
    19. Klomp, Jeroen & de Haan, Jakob, 2009. "Political institutions and economic volatility," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 311-326, September.
    20. Fischer, Stanley & Easterly, William, 1990. "The Economic of the Government Budget Constraint," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 5(2), pages 127-142, July.
    21. Stefan Collignon, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Rules and the Sustainability of Public Debt in Europe," RECON Online Working Papers Series 28, RECON.
    22. Bas Aarle & Lans Bovenberg & Matthias Raith, 1995. "Monetary and fiscal policy interaction and government debt stabilization," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 111-140, June.
    23. Reinhard Neck & Jan-Egbert Sturm (ed.), 2008. "Sustainability of Public Debt," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262140985, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Z. Nikooeinejad & M. Heydari & M. Saffarzadeh & G. B. Loghmani & J. Engwerda, 2022. "Numerical Simulation of Non-cooperative and Cooperative Equilibrium Solutions for a Stochastic Government Debt Stabilization Game," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(2), pages 775-801, February.
    2. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Marco Di Pietro & Enrico Saltari & Willi Semmler, 2018. "Public debt stabilization: the relevance of policymakers’ time horizons," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 177(3), pages 287-299, December.
    3. Engwerda, Jacob & van Aarle, Bas & Anevlavis, Tzanis, 2019. "Debt stabilization games in a monetary union: What are the effects of introducing eurobonds?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 78-102.
    4. Nikooeinejad, Z. & Heydari, M. & Loghmani, G.B., 2022. "A numerical iterative method for solving two-point BVPs in infinite-horizon nonzero-sum differential games: Economic applications," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 404-427.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Z. Nikooeinejad & M. Heydari & M. Saffarzadeh & G. B. Loghmani & J. Engwerda, 2022. "Numerical Simulation of Non-cooperative and Cooperative Equilibrium Solutions for a Stochastic Government Debt Stabilization Game," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(2), pages 775-801, February.
    2. Enrico Saltari & Willi Semmler & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo, 2022. "A Nash Equilibrium for Differential Games with Moving-Horizon Strategies," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(3), pages 1041-1054, October.
    3. Willi Semmler & Alexander Haider, 2018. "Cooperative Monetary and Fiscal Policies in the Euro Area," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(1), pages 217-234, July.
    4. Christos Mavrodimitrakis, 2022. "Debt stabilization and financial stability in a monetary union: Market versus authority‐based preventive solutions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2582-2599, April.
    5. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Marco Di Pietro & Enrico Saltari & Willi Semmler, 2018. "Public debt stabilization: the relevance of policymakers’ time horizons," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 177(3), pages 287-299, December.
    6. Valeria De Bonis & Pompeo Della Posta, 2005. "Strategic interactions between monetary and fiscal authorities in a monetary union," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 26, Departamento de Economia, Gestão e Engenharia Industrial, Universidade de Aveiro.
    7. Engwerda, Jacob & van Aarle, Bas & Anevlavis, Tzanis, 2019. "Debt stabilization games in a monetary union: What are the effects of introducing eurobonds?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 78-102.
    8. Tadadjeu Wemba, Dessy-Karl & Essiane, Patrick-Nelson Daniel, 2018. "Autonomie des Banques Centrales et Finances Publiques en Afrique subsaharienne [Autonomy of Central Banks and Public Finances in Sub-saharan Africa]," MPRA Paper 100828, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Engwerda, J.C., 2007. "Multicriteria Dynamic Optimization Problems and Cooperative Dynamic Games," Other publications TiSEM c7941fef-278b-42ca-a6b8-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Giuli, Francesco, 2011. "Fiscal and monetary interaction under monetary policy uncertainty," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 369-375, June.
    11. Engwerda, Jacob & van Aarle, Bas & Plasmans, Joseph & Weeren, Arie, 2013. "Debt stabilization games in the presence of risk premia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2525-2546.
    12. Pasquale Foresti, 2015. "Monetary and debt-concerned fiscal policies interaction in monetary unions," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 541-552, October.
    13. Engwerda, J.C., 2006. "Linear Quadratic Games : An Overview," Discussion Paper 2006-110, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    14. Olga S. Kuznetsova & Sergey A. Merzlyakov, 2015. "The Role of Uncertain Government Preferences For Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interaction," HSE Working papers WP BRP 102/EC/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    15. W. A. van den Broek, 1999. "Moving-Horizon Control in Dynamic Games," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 122, Society for Computational Economics.
    16. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    17. Hanato, Shunsuke, 2019. "Simultaneous-offers bargaining with a mediator," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 361-379.
    18. Zongsen Zou & Xiuling Wang & Dengtian Feng, 2020. "Adhere to the rules or be discretionary? Empirical evidence from the euro area," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(2), pages 501-525, April.
    19. Kadria, Mohamed & Ben Aissa, Mohamed Safouane, 2016. "Inflation targeting and public deficit in emerging countries: A time varying treatment effect approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 108-114.
    20. Engwerda, Jacob C., 1998. "On the open-loop Nash equilibrium in LQ-games," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 729-762, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C7 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory
    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tiu:tiutis:8da07e25-a1e7-4d91-8829-1a152aa1d5f9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Richard Broekman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.tilburguniversity.edu/about/schools/economics-and-management/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.