IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ter/wpaper/00135.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Public debt stabilization: The relevance of policymakers’ time horizons

Author

Listed:
  • Di Bartolomeo Giovanni
  • Di Pietro Marco
  • Semmler Willi

Abstract

Policymakers are stuck in time. Political short-termism, policy myopia, policy short-sightedness, and similar words have been coined to emphasize present-centric policy thinking. Politics tends to produce short time horizons and, as a result, policymakers often fail to take advantage of opportunities now to mitigate future harms. Focusing on fiscal and monetary strategic interactions, given different separate decision makers, our paper aims to explore the effects of policymakers’ time horizons on debt stabilization. To formalize our ideas, we use the novel concept of Nonlinear-model-predictive-control Feedback Nash Equilibrium (NFNE) and find that present-centric policy thinking and decision-making horizons matters along several dimensions.

Suggested Citation

  • Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Di Pietro Marco & Semmler Willi, 2017. "Public debt stabilization: The relevance of policymakers’ time horizons," wp.comunite 00135, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ter:wpaper:00135
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.dipecodir.it/wpcom/data/wp_no_135_2017.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. van Aarle, Bas & Lans Bovenberg, A. & Raith, Matthias G., 1997. "Is there a tragedy of a common central bank? A dynamic analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 417-447.
    2. Tabellini, Guido & La Via, Vincenzo, 1989. "Money, Deficit and Public Debt in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 15-25, February.
    3. Ronald Wintrobe, 2001. "How to understand, and deal with dictatorship: an economist's view," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 35-58, March.
    4. Engwerda, Jacob & van Aarle, Bas & Plasmans, Joseph & Weeren, Arie, 2013. "Debt stabilization games in the presence of risk premia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2525-2546.
    5. Dixit Avinash K, 2010. "Democracy, Autocracy and Bureaucracy," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-47, January.
    6. Niemann, Stefan, 2011. "Dynamic monetary–fiscal interactions and the role of monetary conservatism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 234-247.
    7. Reinhard Neck & Dmitri Blueschke, 2014. "“Haircuts” for the EMU periphery: virtue or vice?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 153-175, May.
    8. Adam, Klaus, 2011. "Government debt and optimal monetary and fiscal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 57-74, January.
    9. Jacob Engwerda & Davoud Mahmoudinia & Rahim Dalali Isfahani, 2016. "Government and Central Bank Interaction under Uncertainty: A Differential Games Approach," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 20(2), pages 225-259, Spring.
    10. Smart, Michael & Sturm, Daniel M., 2013. "Term limits and electoral accountability," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 93-102.
    11. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1999. "Political economics and macroeconomic policy," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 22, pages 1397-1482, Elsevier.
    12. Buchanan, James M & Lee, Dwight R, 1982. "Politics, Time, and the Laffer Curve," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 816-819, August.
    13. Alberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini, 1990. "A Positive Theory of Fiscal Deficits and Government Debt," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(3), pages 403-414.
    14. Glaeser, Edward L, 1997. "Self-Imposed Term Limits," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 93(3-4), pages 389-394, December.
    15. Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1988. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 55(1), pages 1-16.
    16. Bas Aarle & Lans Bovenberg & Matthias Raith, 1995. "Monetary and fiscal policy interaction and government debt stabilization," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 111-140, June.
    17. Benjamin Hébert & Michael Woodford, 2017. "Rational Inattention and Sequential Information Sampling," NBER Working Papers 23787, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Hebert, Benjamin & Woodford, Michael, 2017. "Rational Inattention with Sequential Information Sampling," Research Papers repec:ecl:stabus:3457, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    19. Dirk Foremny & Agnese Sacchi & Simone Salotti, 2017. "Decentralization and the duration of fiscal consolidation: shifting the burden across layers of government," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 171(3), pages 359-387, June.
    20. Francesco Forte, 2012. "The New Macro Political Economy of Alberto Alesina," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 40(4), pages 417-428, December.
    21. Jochimsen, Beate & Thomasius, Sebastian, 2014. "The perfect finance minister: Whom to appoint as finance minister to balance the budget," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 390-408.
    22. Rieth, Malte, 2014. "Myopic governments and welfare-enhancing debt limits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 250-265.
    23. Acemoglu,Daron & Robinson,James A., 2009. "Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671422, September.
    24. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Debora Di Gioacchino, 2008. "Fiscal-monetary policy coordination and debt management: a two-stage analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 35(4), pages 433-448, September.
    25. Stefan Niemann & Paul Pichler & Gerhard Sorger, 2013. "Central Bank Independence And The Monetary Instrument Problem," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54, pages 1031-1055, August.
    26. Dmitri Blueschke & Reinhard Neck, 2011. "“Core” and “Periphery” in a Monetary Union: A Macroeconomic Policy Game," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 17(3), pages 334-346, August.
    27. Sacchi, Agnese & Salotti, Simone, 2015. "The impact of national fiscal rules on the stabilisation function of fiscal policy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-20.
    28. Thushyanthan Baskaran, 2010. "On the link between fiscal decentralization and public debt in OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 351-378, December.
    29. Tabellini, Guido, 1986. "Money, debt and deficits in a dynamic game," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 427-442, December.
    30. Buchanan, James M & Congleton, Roger D, 1994. "The Incumbency Dilemma and Rent Extraction by Legislators," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 79(1-2), pages 47-60, April.
    31. Engwerda, Jacob C. & van Aarle, Bas & Plasmans, Joseph E. J., 2002. "Cooperative and non-cooperative fiscal stabilization policies in the EMU," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 451-481, March.
    32. van den Broek, W. A., 2002. "Moving horizon control in dynamic games," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 937-961, June.
    33. Wintrobe, Ronald, 1990. "The Tinpot and the Totalitarian: An Economic Theory of Dictatorship," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 84(3), pages 849-872, September.
    34. Joseph M. Johnson & W. Mark Crain, 2004. "Effects of Term Limits on Fiscal Performance: Evidence from Democratic Nations," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 119(1_2), pages 73-90, April.
    35. Herbert A. Simon, 1955. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 69(1), pages 99-118.
    36. Schnellenbach, Jan & Schubert, Christian, 2015. "Behavioral political economy: A survey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PB), pages 395-417.
    37. Xavier Debrun & Laurent Moulin & Alessandro Turrini & Joaquim Ayuso-i-Casals & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2008. "Tied to the mast? National fiscal rules in the European Union [‘Constitutions, politics, and economics’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 23(54), pages 298-362.
    38. Lockwood, Ben & Philippopoulos, Apostolis & Snell, Andy, 1996. "Fiscal Policy, Public Debt Stabilisation and Politics: Theory and UK Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 894-911, July.
    39. Sieg, Gernot, 2001. "A political business cycle with boundedly rational agents," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 39-52, March.
    40. Edward Glaeser, 1997. "Self-imposed term limits," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 93(3), pages 389-394, December.
    41. Marcela Eslava, 2011. "The Political Economy Of Fiscal Deficits: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 645-673, September.
    42. Woo, Jaejoon, 2003. "Economic, political, and institutional determinants of public deficits," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(3-4), pages 387-426, March.
    43. Lopez, Edward J, 2003. "Term Limits: Causes and Consequences," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 114(1-2), pages 1-56, January.
    44. Grüne, Lars & Semmler, Willi & Stieler, Marleen, 2015. "Using nonlinear model predictive control for dynamic decision problems in economics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 112-133.
    45. van Aarle, Bas & Engwerda, Jacob & Weeren, Arie, 2018. "Effects of debt mutualization in a monetary union with endogenous risk premia: Can Eurobonds contribute to debt stabilization?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 100-114.
    46. Alesina, Alberto & Özler, Sule & Roubini, Nouriel & Swagel, Phillip, 1996. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 189-211, June.
    47. Dalle Nogare, Chiara & Ricciuti, Roberto, 2011. "Do term limits affect fiscal policy choices?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 681-692.
    48. Neck, Reinhard & Getzner, Michael, 2001. "Politico-Economic Determinants of Public Debt Growth: A Case Study for Austria," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 109(3-4), pages 243-268, December.
    49. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
    50. Devereux, Michael B. & Wen, Jean-Francois, 1998. "Political instability, capital taxation, and growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(9), pages 1635-1651, November.
    51. William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
    52. Olson, Mancur, 1993. "Dictatorship, Democracy, and Development," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 567-576, September.
    53. Jakob Haan & Richard Jong-A-Pin & Jochen Mierau, 2013. "Do budgetary institutions mitigate the common pool problem? New empirical evidence for the EU," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 423-441, September.
    54. Christopher A. Sims, 2006. "Rational Inattention: Beyond the Linear-Quadratic Case," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 158-163, May.
    55. Jacob Engwerda & Bas van Aarle & Arie Weeren & Bas Van Aarle, 2015. "Debt Stabilization and Debt Mutualization in a Monetary Union with Endogenous Risk Premia," CESifo Working Paper Series 5564, CESifo.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Saltari, Enrico & Semmler, Willi, 2019. "The effects of political short-termism on transitions induced by pollution regulations," EconStor Preprints 200143, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    2. Semmler, Willi & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Minooei Fard, Behnaz & Braga, Joao Paulo, 2022. "Limit pricing and entry game of renewable energy firms into the energy sector," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 179-190.
    3. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Minooei Fard, Behnaz & Semmler, Willi, 2023. "Greenhouse gases mitigation: global externalities and short-termism," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(3), pages 230-241, June.
    4. Behnaz Minooei Fard & Willi Semmler & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo, 2023. "Rare Earth Elements: A game between China and the rest of the world," Working Papers in Public Economics 235, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Roma.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Enrico Saltari & Willi Semmler & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo, 2022. "A Nash Equilibrium for Differential Games with Moving-Horizon Strategies," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(3), pages 1041-1054, October.
    2. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Saltari, Enrico & Semmler, Willi, 2019. "The effects of political short-termism on transitions induced by pollution regulations," EconStor Preprints 200143, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    3. Alesina, A. & Passalacqua, A., 2016. "The Political Economy of Government Debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2599-2651, Elsevier.
    4. Ohad Raveh & Yacov Tsur, 2018. "Resource Windfalls and Public Debt: The Role of Political Myopia," OxCarre Working Papers 205, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    5. Mark Schelker, 2009. "Auditor Terms and Term Limits in the Public Sector: Evidence from the US States," CREMA Working Paper Series 2009-19, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    6. Raveh, Ohad & Tsur, Yacov, 2020. "Resource windfalls and public debt: A political economy perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    7. Z. Nikooeinejad & M. Heydari & M. Saffarzadeh & G. B. Loghmani & J. Engwerda, 2022. "Numerical Simulation of Non-cooperative and Cooperative Equilibrium Solutions for a Stochastic Government Debt Stabilization Game," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(2), pages 775-801, February.
    8. Christos Mavrodimitrakis, 2022. "Debt stabilization and financial stability in a monetary union: Market versus authority‐based preventive solutions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2582-2599, April.
    9. Ohad Raveh & Yacov Tsur, 2017. "Political Myopia, Public Debt," OxCarre Working Papers 200, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    10. Willi Semmler & Alexander Haider, 2018. "Cooperative Monetary and Fiscal Policies in the Euro Area," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(1), pages 217-234, July.
    11. Mark Schelker, 2012. "The influence of auditor term length and term limits on US state general obligation bond ratings," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 27-49, January.
    12. Raveh, Ohad & Tsur, Yacov, 2020. "Reelection, growth and public debt," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    13. Engwerda, Jacob & van Aarle, Bas & Anevlavis, Tzanis, 2019. "Debt stabilization games in a monetary union: What are the effects of introducing eurobonds?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 78-102.
    14. Dalle Nogare, Chiara & Kauder, Björn, 2017. "Term limits for mayors and intergovernmental grants: Evidence from Italian cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-11.
    15. Dilla, Diana, 2017. "Staatsverschuldung und Verschuldungsmentalität [Public Debt and Debt Mentality]," MPRA Paper 79432, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. George Economides & Jim Malley & Apostolis Philippopoulos & Ulrich Woitek, 2003. "Electoral Uncertainty, Fiscal Policies & Growth: Theory and Evidence from Germany, the UK and the US," CESifo Working Paper Series 1072, CESifo.
    17. Jacob Engwerda & Davoud Mahmoudinia & Rahim Dalali Isfahani, 2016. "Government and Central Bank Interaction under Uncertainty: A Differential Games Approach," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 20(2), pages 225-259, Spring.
    18. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & George Economides, 2008. "Fiscal policy, rent seeking, and growth under electoral uncertainty: theory and evidence from the OECD," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(4), pages 1375-1405, November.
    19. Economides, George & Philippopoulos, Apostolis & Price, Simon, 2003. "How elections affect fiscal policy and growth: revisiting the mechanism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 777-792, November.
    20. Smart, Michael & Sturm, Daniel M., 2013. "Term limits and electoral accountability," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 93-102.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ter:wpaper:00135. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Giovanni Di Bartolomeo (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://sites.google.com/a/uniroma1.it/cimeo/home .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.