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Intervention Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Sanjeev Sridharan

    (Westat, Rockville, USA)

  • Suncica Vujic

    (Dept of Econometrics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Siem Jan Koopman

    (Dept of Econometrics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

Abstract

The Commonwealth of Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing for all felony of-fenders committed on or after January 1, 1995. We examine the impact of this legislationon reported crime rates using different time series approaches. In particular, structuraltime series models are considered as an alternative to the Box-Jenkins ARIMA modelsthat form the standard time series approach to intervention analysis. Limited supportfor the deterrent impact of parole abolition and sentence reform is obtained using uni-variate modelling devices, even after including unemployment as an explanatory variabIe.Finally, the flexibility of structural time series models is illustrated by presenting a mul-tivariate analysis that provides some additional evidence of the deterrent impact of thenew legislation.

Suggested Citation

  • Sanjeev Sridharan & Suncica Vujic & Siem Jan Koopman, 2003. "Intervention Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-040/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20030040
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Steven D. Levitt, 1996. "The Effect of Prison Population Size on Crime Rates: Evidence from Prison Overcrowding Litigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(2), pages 319-351.
    2. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Qi Li & Wei Long, 2018. "Do parole abolition and Truth-in-Sentencing deter violent crimes in Virginia?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 2027-2045, December.
    2. Zuzana Janko & Janusz Kokoszewski, 2013. "An Intervention Time Series Analysis: Specialization and Competitiveness in Sports”," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2177-2190.
    3. Wei Long, 2016. "Does Longer Incarceration Deter or Incapacitate Crimes? New Evidence from Truth-in-Sentencing Reform," Working Papers 1607, Tulane University, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARIMA models; Intervention; Parole abolition; Regression models; Sentence reform; Structural time series models.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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