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Bubbles tomorrow and bubbles yesterday, but never bubbles today?

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Presentation to the National Association for Business Economics, San Francisco, September 9, 2013

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  • John C. Williams, 2013. "Bubbles tomorrow and bubbles yesterday, but never bubbles today?," Speech 122, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfsp:122
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    1. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Anne K. Thompson, 2012. "What Have They Been Thinking? Homebuyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 265-315.
    2. Cutler, David M & Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "Speculative Dynamics and the Role of Feedback Traders," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 63-68, May.
    3. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    4. Gelain, Paolo & Lansing, Kevin J., 2014. "House prices, expectations, and time-varying fundamentals," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 3-25.
    5. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet & Johannes Beutel, 2017. "Stock Price Booms and Expected Capital Gains," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(8), pages 2352-2408, August.
    6. John H. Cochrane, 2008. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1533-1575, July.
    7. Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2015. "Predicting returns and rent growth in the housing market using the rent-price ratio: Evidence from the OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 257-275.
    8. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2011. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 373-416.
    9. Robin Greenwood & Andrei Shleifer, 2014. "Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 714-746.
    10. Campbell, Sean D. & Davis, Morris A. & Gallin, Joshua & Martin, Robert F., 2009. "What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent-price ratio," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 90-102, September.
    11. Morten Balling & Christian Sinding Bentzen & Jesper Berg & Alan Boyce & Per Callesen & José Carrasco-Gallego & Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & R. Glenn Hubbard & Deniz Igan & Marius Jurgilus & Kevin J. Lansin, 2013. "Property Prices and Real Estate Financing in a Turbulent World," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2013/4 edited by Morten Balling & Jesper Berg, May.
    12. Moses Abramovitz, 1956. "Resource and Output Trends in the United States since 1870," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number abra56-1.
    13. Moses Abramovitz, 1956. "Resource and Output Trends in the United States since 1870," NBER Chapters, in: Resource and Output Trends in the United States since 1870, pages 1-23, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gelain, Paolo & Lansing, Kevin J., 2014. "House prices, expectations, and time-varying fundamentals," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 3-25.
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    3. Bertsatos, Georgios & Sakellaris, Plutarchos, 2016. "A dynamic model of bank valuation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 15-18.
    4. Anundsen, André Kallåk & Heebøll, Christian, 2016. "Supply restrictions, subprime lending and regional US house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 54-72.
    5. Hodula Martin & Malovaná Simona & Frait Jan, 2022. "Too much of a good thing? Households’ macroeconomic conditions and credit dynamics," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 23(4), pages 529-566, December.
    6. Kurmaş Akdoğan, 2019. "Size and sign asymmetries in house price adjustments," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(48), pages 5268-5281, October.
    7. Lee, Taehyun & Moutzouris, Ioannis C & Papapostolou, Nikos C & Fatouh, Mahmoud, 2023. "Foreign exchange hedging using regime-switching models: the case of pound sterling," Bank of England working papers 1042, Bank of England.
    8. Roman Frydman & Joshua R. Stillwagon, 2016. "Stock-Market Expectations: Econometric Evidence that both REH and Behavioral Insights Matter," Working Papers Series 44, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    9. Kevin J. Lansing & Benjamin Pyle, 2015. "Persistent overoptimism about economic growth," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    10. Frydman, Roman & Stillwagon, Joshua R., 2018. "Fundamental factors and extrapolation in stock-market expectations: The central role of structural change," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 189-198.

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