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Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data

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  • Yumi Saita
  • Chihiro Shimizu
  • Tsutomu Watanabe

Abstract

In this paper, we empirically investigate how real estate prices are affected by aging. We run regional panel regressions for Japan and the United States. Our regression results show that, both in Japan and the U.S., real estate prices in a region are inversely correlated with the old age dependency ratio, i.e. the ratio of population aged 65+ to population aged 20-64, in that region, and positively correlated with the total number of population in that region. The demographic factor had a greater impact on real estate prices in Japan than in the U.S. Based on the regression result for Japan and the population forecast made by a government agency, we estimate the demographic impact on Japanese real estate prices over the next 30 years. We find that it will be -2.4 percent per year in 2012-2040 while it was -3.7 percent per year in 1976-2010, suggesting that aging will continue to have downward pressure on land prices over the next 30 years, although the demographic impact will be slightly smaller than it was in 1976-2010 as the old age dependency ratio will not increase as much as it did before.

Suggested Citation

  • Yumi Saita & Chihiro Shimizu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2014. "Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data," Working Papers e068, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcr:wpaper:e68
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chihiro Shimizu & Yongheng Deng & Tomoo Inoue & Kiyohiko Nishimura, 2024. "Demographics Outlook, Credit Conditions, and Property Prices," Working Papers e198, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    2. repec:ire:issued:v:26:n:04:2023:p:463-488 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Masayuki Nakagawa & Chihiro Shimizu, 2023. "Aging City and House Prices: Impact of Aging Condominium Stock on the Housing Market in the Tokyo-Metropolitan Area," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 26(4), pages 465-490.

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