IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tcb/econot/2010.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What Drives Portfolio Flows to Turkey? The Dynamics and a Historical Accounting of the Flows

Author

Listed:
  • Zelal Aktas
  • Neslihan Kaya Eksi

Abstract

[EN] Portfolio flows to emerging economies, as well as to Turkey, have been increasingly large and volatile in recent years. This paper aims to shed light on the drivers of portfolio flows to Turkey, for the preceding decade. The drivers are classified using the traditional "push vs. pull" framework, which we augment by a distinction between "cyclical vs structural" factors. While the relative importance of global and country-specific drivers varies over time, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis country-specific ones dominate in driving portfolio flows. Among the global drivers the risk appetite of investors matters most for portfolio flows. Among the domestic drivers, growth, country risk and real interest rate have the highest impact on flows. As for the cyclical vs structural distinction, although cyclical pull factors dominate the structural ones in driving flows, the contribution from the structurals is on the rise. In that respect, both financial resilience and the political and social attributes of the country seem to be important in attracting flows. [TR] Gelismekte olan ulkelere yonelen portfoy akimlari, son yillarda giderek daha yuksek miktarli ancak daha dalgali bir seyir izlemektedir. Turkiye icin de benzer bir durum soz konusudur. Bu calisma, gectigimiz on yillik donemde Turkiye'ye yonelen portfoy akimlarinin belirleyicilerine isik tutmayi amaclamaktadir. Calismamizda portfoy akimlarinin belirleyicileri, geleneksel "iten-ceken faktorler" cercevesine "dongusel ve yapisal" faktorler ayrimi da eklenerek siniflandirilmaktadir. Kuresel ve ulkeye ozgu dinamiklerin goreli onemi zaman icerisinde degismekle beraber, kuresel finansal krizin ardindan ulkeye ozgu dinamiklerin Turkiye'ye yonelen portfoy akimlarinda daha belirleyici oldugu gozlenmistir. Kuresel etmenler icerisinde, uluslararasi yatirimcilarin risk istahi portfoy akimlari acisindan en onemli belirleyicidir. Ulkeye ozgu belirleyiciler arasinda ise, akimlar uzerinde en yuksek etkiye sahip olan degiskenlerin buyume, ulke risk primi ve reel faiz oldugu gorulmektedir. Dongusel ve yapisal ayrim cercevesinde degerlendirildiginde, ulkeye ozgu dongusel faktorler yapisal olanlara karsi baskin olsa da, yapisal faktorlerin onemi giderek artmaktadir. Bu baglamda, gerek finansal sistemin saglamligi gerekse ulkeye ozgu politik ve sosyal ozellikler portfoy akimlarini cekmede onem arz etmektedir.

Suggested Citation

  • Zelal Aktas & Neslihan Kaya Eksi, 2020. "What Drives Portfolio Flows to Turkey? The Dynamics and a Historical Accounting of the Flows," CBT Research Notes in Economics 2010, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:2010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/d76db615-34be-4f21-88ae-bb55dba4c518/en2010eng.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-d76db615-34be-4f21-88ae-bb55dba4c518-na3WXwY
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    2. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-356.
    3. Marcel Fratzscher & Marco Lo Duca & Roland Straub, 2018. "On the International Spillovers of US Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 330-377, February.
    4. Hausman, Joshua & Wongswan, Jon, 2011. "Global asset prices and FOMC announcements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 547-571, April.
    5. Ahmed, Shaghil & Coulibaly, Brahima & Zlate, Andrei, 2017. "International financial spillovers to emerging market economies: How important are economic fundamentals?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 133-152.
    6. Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan, 2018. "Revisiting the Determinants of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets--A Survey of the Evolving Literature," IMF Working Papers 2018/214, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo, 1996. "The new wave of private capital inflows: Push or pull?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 389-418, March.
    8. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    9. Steven J. Davis, 2016. "An Index of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 22740, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Ms. Prachi Mishra & Mr. Kenji Moriyama & Mr. Papa M N'Diaye & Lam Nguyen, 2014. "Impact of Fed Tapering Announcements on Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2014/109, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gemici, Eray & Gök, Remzi & Bouri, Elie, 2023. "Predictability of risk appetite in Turkey: Local versus global factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xichen Wang & Cheng Yan, 2022. "Does the Relative Importance of the Push and Pull Factors of Foreign Capital Flows Vary Across Quantiles?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(2), pages 252-299, June.
    2. Anusha Chari & Karlye Dilts Stedman & Christian Lundblad, 2017. "Taper Tantrums: QE, its Aftermath and Emerging Market Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 23474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Puy, Damien, 2019. "Push factors and capital flows to emerging markets: why knowing your lender matters more than fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 133-149.
    4. Mélina London & Maéva Silvestrini, 2023. "US Monetary Policy Spillovers to Emerging Markets: the Trade Credit Channel," Working papers 915, Banque de France.
    5. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Garima Vasishtha, 2014. "The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Capital Flows to Emerging-Market Economies," Staff Working Papers 14-53, Bank of Canada.
    6. Hardik A. Marfatia, 2016. "The Role of Push and Pull Factors in Driving Global Capital Flows," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 62(2), pages 117-146.
    7. Rogelio V. Mercado, 2023. "Bilateral capital flows: Gravity, push and pull," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 36-63, April.
    8. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2016. "Global financial conditions and asset markets: Evidence from fragile emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 208-220.
    9. Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan, 2018. "Revisiting the Determinants of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets--A Survey of the Evolving Literature," IMF Working Papers 2018/214, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Julian di Giovanni & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Mehmet Fatih Ulu & Yusuf Soner Baskaya, 2022. "International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(2), pages 733-773.
    11. Çepni, Oğuzhan & Gül, Selçuk & Hacıhasanoğlu, Yavuz Selim & Yılmaz, Muhammed Hasan, 2020. "Global uncertainties and portfolio flow dynamics of the BRICS countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    12. Hernández Vega Marco A., 2018. "Does Monetary Policy in Advanced Economies Have Differentiated Effects on Portfolio Flows to Emerging Economies?," Working Papers 2018-27, Banco de México.
    13. Carlos Alba & Gabriel Cuadra & Juan R. Hernandez & Raul Ibarra, 2024. "Capital flows to emerging economies and global risk aversion during the COVID‐19 pandemic," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 2804-2836, July.
    14. Duran, Hasan Engin & Ferreira-Lopes, Alexandra, 2022. "The Revival Of The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle And Moderation Of Capital Flows After The Global Financial Crisis (2008/09)," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    15. Anusha Chari & Karlye Dilts Stedman & Christian Lundblad, 2020. "Capital Flows in Risky Times: Risk-on/Risk-off and Emerging Market Tail Risk," NBER Working Papers 27927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Hernandez-Vega, Marco, 2019. "Estimating Capital Flows To Emerging Market Economies With Heterogeneous Panels," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 2068-2088, July.
    17. Seung-Gwan Baek & Chi-Young Song, 2016. "On the Determinants of Surges and Stops in Foreign Loans: An Empirical Investigation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 405-445, July.
    18. Raul Ibarra & Isela-Elizabeth Tellez-Leon, 2020. "Are all types of capital flows driven by the same factors? Evidence from Mexico," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 461-502, July.
    19. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Vasishtha, Garima, 2021. "Reprint: Monetary policy news in the US: Effects on emerging market capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    20. Cenedese, Gino & Elard, Ilaf, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy and the portfolio choice of international mutual funds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:2010. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge or the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tcmgvtr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.