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Enflasyonu Aciklamada Kredilerin Bilgi Degeri

Author

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  • Fethi Ogunc
  • Cagri Sarikaya

Abstract

[TR] Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi (TCMB) 2010 yilinin sonlarindan itibaren politika araclarini cesitlendirerek enflasyonun yaninda kredileri de icerecek sekilde genisletilmis bir politika cercevesi benimsemistir. Para politikasi uygulamasindaki bu degisim, aktarim mekanizmasinda kredilerin rolunun ne oldugu sorusunu gundeme getirmistir. Finansal unsurlarin is cevrimlerinin belirleyicilerinden biri oldugu dusuncesinden hareketle kredi-enflasyon iliskisinin ele alindigi bu calismada, cesitli kredi degiskenlerinin (tuketici, ticari, vb.) Phillips egrisi denklemlerindeki anlamliligi sinanmistir. Enflasyon kontrolunde arac secimi ve mevcut para politikasinin etki alani konularinda faydali olabilecek sonuclar soyle ozetlenebilir: (i) Krediler enflasyonu aciklamada herhangi bir bilgi kaybi olmaksizin cikti acigina alternatif olabilecegi gibi ek bilgi de saglayabilmektedir. (ii) Kredilerin enflasyonu etkileme ufku bir bucuk yila kadar ulasabilmektedir. (iii) Kredi tanimlari arasinda gerek enflasyonu aciklama gucu gerekse dogrudan gozlenebilirlik kistaslariyla net kredi kullanimi gostergesi one cikmaktadir. (iv) Cikti acigindaki degisim ve kredi ivmesi (net kredi kullanimindaki degisim) de enflasyonu etkileyebilmektedir. (v) TL bazinda esit tutardaki kredi artislarinin tuketici kredileri icin ticari kredilere kiyasla daha yuksek bir enflasyonist etkisi oldugu tahmin edilmektedir. (vi) Cikti acigi tahmin edilirken kredi gelismelerinin de dikkate alinmasi is cevriminin daha iyi resmedilmesini saglayabilecektir. [EN] Central Bank of Turkey has adopted an extended policy framework since 2010 by introducing new tools to target credit growth besides inflation. This alteration in monetary policy has raised a question about the role of credit in monetary transmission. With the motivation that financial factors are one of the key determinants of the business cycle, this study aims to analyze the relationship between credit and inflation by testing the statistical significance of various credit variables in the Philips curve equation. The main findings concerning tool selection for price stability and effectiveness of monetary policy can be listed as follows: (i) Credit variables not only serve as an alternative to output gap in explaining inflation dynamics without any loss of information but also provide extra information in some cases. (ii) The impact horizon of credit on inflation can be as long as one and a half year. (iii) Net credit use comes forward among other definitions of credit with its observability (real-time property) and ability to explain inflation. (iv) A change in output gap or credit impulse (change in net credit use) can also influence inflation. (v) For an equal rise in TL terms, consumer credits are estimated to be more inflationary than commercial credits. (vi) The use of credit developments in the estimation of output gap may yield to better representation of the business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Fethi Ogunc & Cagri Sarikaya, 2015. "Enflasyonu Aciklamada Kredilerin Bilgi Degeri," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1512, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:1512
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Oguzhan Cepni & Yavuz Selim Hacihasanoglu & Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz, 2020. "Credit decomposition and economic activity in Turkey: A wavelet-based approach," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 20(3), pages 109-131.

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