IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/red/issued/20-29.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Output Gap, Monetary Policy Trade-offs, and Financial Frictions

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Furlanetto

    (Norges Bank)

  • Paolo Gelain

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)

  • Marzie Taheri Sanjani

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

This paper investigates how the presence of pervasive financial frictions and large financial shocks changes the optimal monetary policy prescriptions and the estimated dynamics in a New Keynesian model. We find that financial factors affect the optimal policy only to some extent. A policy of nominal stabilization (with a particular focus on targeting wage inflation) is still the optimal policy, although the central bank is now unable to fully stabilize economic activity around its potential level. In contrast, the presence of financial frictions and financial shocks crucially changes the size and shape of the estimated output gap and the relative importance of different shocks in driving economic fluctuations, with financial shocks absorbing explanatory power from labor supply shocks. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Furlanetto & Paolo Gelain & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2021. "Output Gap, Monetary Policy Trade-offs, and Financial Frictions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 52-70, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:20-29
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2010.07.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2020.07.004
    Download Restriction: Access to full texts is restricted to ScienceDirect subscribers and institutional members. See https://www.sciencedirect.com/ for details.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.red.2010.07.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Urban J. Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2006. "Financial innovations and macroeconomic volatility," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    2. Francesco Furlanetto & Francesco Ravazzolo & Samad Sarferaz, 2019. "Identification of Financial Factors in Economic Fluctuations," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(617), pages 311-337.
    3. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2010. "Investment shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 132-145, March.
    4. Dedola, Luca & Karadi, Peter & Lombardo, Giovanni, 2013. "Global implications of national unconventional policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 66-85.
    5. Peter N. Ireland, 2007. "Changes in the Federal Reserve's Inflation Target: Causes and Consequences," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 1851-1882, December.
    6. Fiorella De Fiore & Pedro Teles & Oreste Tristani, 2011. "Monetary Policy and the Financing of Firms," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 112-142, October.
    7. Jordi Galí & Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2012. "Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 329-360.
    8. Andrew T. Levin & Alexei Onatski & John Williams & Noah M. Williams, 2006. "Monetary Policy under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 229-312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Canova, Fabio, 2014. "Bridging DSGE models and the raw data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-15.
    10. Cristina Fuentes‐Albero, 2019. "Financial Frictions, Financial Shocks, and Aggregate Volatility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(6), pages 1581-1621, September.
    11. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    12. Lawrence J. Christiano & Cosmin Ilut & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2010. "Monetary policy and stock market booms," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 85-145.
    13. Salvatore Nisticò, 2016. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in a Non-Ricardian Economy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(5), pages 1225-1252.
    14. Claudio BorioBy & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius, 2017. "Rethinking potential output: embedding information about the financial cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 655-677.
    15. Fendoğlu, Salih, 2014. "Optimal monetary policy rules, financial amplification, and uncertain business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 271-305.
    16. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2013. "Is There a Trade-Off between Inflation and Output Stabilization?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 1-31, April.
    17. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    18. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 35-65, February.
    19. Marco Del Negro & Marc P. Giannoni & Frank Schorfheide, 2015. "Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 168-196, January.
    20. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
    21. Negro, Marco Del & Schorfheide, Frank, 2013. "DSGE Model-Based Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 57-140, Elsevier.
    22. Lawrence J. Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2014. "Risk Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 27-65, January.
    23. Fiorella De Fiore & Oreste Tristani, 2013. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Model of the Credit Channel," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123(571), pages 906-931, September.
    24. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    25. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2009. "New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for Policy Analysis," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 242-266, January.
    26. Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2010. "Credit Spreads and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 3-35, September.
    27. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler & J. David López-Salido, 2007. "Markups, Gaps, and the Welfare Costs of Business Fluctuations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 44-59, November.
    28. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 238-271, February.
    29. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    30. Ferroni Filippo, 2011. "Trend Agnostic One-Step Estimation of DSGE Models," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-36, July.
    31. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
    32. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Credit Supply Shocks," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(2), pages 195-232, June.
    33. Ravenna, Federico & Walsh, Carl E., 2006. "Optimal monetary policy with the cost channel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 199-216, March.
    34. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    35. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst & Matthias Paustian, 2010. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Model with Agency Costs," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 37-70, September.
    36. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2012. "Erratum: Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1186-1186, April.
    37. Faia, Ester & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2007. "Optimal interest rate rules, asset prices, and credit frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3228-3254, October.
    38. Chris Woolston, 2014. "Rice," Nature, Nature, vol. 514(7524), pages 49-49, October.
    39. Mr. Pau Rabanal & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2015. "Financial Factors: Implications for Output Gaps," IMF Working Papers 2015/153, International Monetary Fund.
    40. Edge, Rochelle M. & Kiley, Michael T. & Laforte, Jean-Philippe, 2008. "Natural rate measures in an estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2512-2535, August.
    41. G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), 2013. "Handbook of Economic Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Berger, Tino & Richter, Julia & Wong, Benjamin, 2022. "A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    2. Foroni, Claudia & Gelain, Paolo & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2022. "The financial accelerator mechanism: does frequency matter?," Working Paper Series 2637, European Central Bank.
    3. Francesco Furlanetto & Kåre Hagelund & Frank Hansen & Ørjan Robstad, 2020. "Norges Bank Output Gap Estimates: Forecasting Properties, Reliability and Cyclical Sensitivity," Working Paper 2020/7, Norges Bank.
    4. Lorenzo Burlon & Paolo D'Imperio, 2019. "The euro-area output gap through the lens of a DSGE model," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 477, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Gelain, Paolo & Manganelli, Simone, 2020. "Monetary policy with judgment," Working Paper Series 2404, European Central Bank.
    6. Burlon, Lorenzo & D’Imperio, Paolo, 2020. "Reliable real-time estimates of the euro-area output gap," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francesco Furlanetto & Paolo Gelain & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2014. "Output Gap in Presence of Financial Frictions and Monetary Policy Trade-offs," IMF Working Papers 2014/128, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Lieberknecht, Philipp, 2018. "Financial Frictions, the Phillips Curve and Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 89429, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Lindé, J. & Smets, F. & Wouters, R., 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks’ Macro Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2185-2262, Elsevier.
    4. Lindé, Jesper & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks´ Macro Models," Working Paper Series 323, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    5. Verona, Fabio & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Drumond, Inês, 2017. "Financial shocks, financial stability, and optimal Taylor rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 187-207.
    6. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2013. "Is There a Trade-Off between Inflation and Output Stabilization?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 1-31, April.
    7. Tayler, William J. & Zilberman, Roy, 2016. "Macroprudential regulation, credit spreads and the role of monetary policy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 144-158.
    8. Foroni, Claudia & Gelain, Paolo & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2022. "The financial accelerator mechanism: does frequency matter?," Working Paper Series 2637, European Central Bank.
    9. Tayler, William & Zilberman, Roy, 2014. "Macroprudential Regulation and the Role of Monetary Policy," Dynare Working Papers 37, CEPREMAP.
    10. Josef Hollmayr & Michael Kuehl, 2016. "Imperfect Information about Financial Frictions and Consequences for the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 22, pages 179-207, October.
    11. Giovanni Melina & Stefania Villa, 2018. "Leaning Against Windy Bank Lending," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 460-482, January.
    12. Görtz, Christoph & Tsoukalas, John, 2011. "News and financial intermediation in aggregate and sectoral fluctuations," MPRA Paper 38986, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2012.
    13. repec:pra:mprapa:38985 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Christoph Görtz & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2022. "News Shocks under Financial Frictions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 210-243, October.
    15. Maik H. Wolters, 2018. "How the baby boomers' retirement wave distorts model‐based output gap estimates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 680-689, August.
    16. Böhl, Gregor & Strobel, Felix, 2020. "US business cycle dynamics at the zero lower bound," IMFS Working Paper Series 143, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    17. Fendoğlu, Salih, 2014. "Optimal monetary policy rules, financial amplification, and uncertain business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 271-305.
    18. Candian, Giacomo & Dmitriev, Mikhail, 2020. "Default recovery rates and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    19. Gan-Ochir Doojav & Kaliappa Kalirajan, 2020. "Financial Frictions and Shocks in an Estimated Small Open Economy DSGE Model," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(2), pages 253-291, June.
    20. Fernández-Villaverde, J. & Rubio-Ramírez, J.F. & Schorfheide, F., 2016. "Solution and Estimation Methods for DSGE Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 527-724, Elsevier.
    21. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial frictions; Output gap; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:issued:20-29. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.