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Mevsimlik Urunler ve Fiyat Oynakligi : Guclu Mevsimsellik ve Ongorulemeyen Oynaklik

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  • Oguz Atuk
  • M. Utku Ozmen
  • Orhun Sevinc

Abstract

[TR] Fiyat endeksleri kapsaminda yilin sadece belirli donemlerinde temin edilebilen urunler guclu mevsimsellik gosteren urunler olarak adlandirilmaktadir. Bu notta, cesitli urun gruplarinin yillik TUFE enflasyonuna yaptigi katkilar incelenerek guclu mevsimselligin ongorulemez fiyat oynakligi olusturmasinin sektorel yapiyla yakindan iliskili oldugu saptanmistir. Ayrica taze meyve ve sebze fiyatlarindaki guclu mevsimsellikten kaynaklanan TUFE oynakliginin, diger urun gruplarindan farkli olarak, aylik bazda da cok yuksek bir belirsizlik icerdigi gosterilmistir. Bu farkliligin enflasyon olcumunde yontemsel olarak dikkate alinmayisinin yasam maliyetinin olcumune ve enflasyon hedeflemesi cercevesinde para politikasina etkileri tartisilmistir. [EN] Strong seasonality is a special case of seasonality which is characterized by the unavailability of products in every period of the year in the market. In this note, contributions to annual CPI inflation of selected product groups are analyzed. Results suggest that strong seasonality driven unpredictable volatility is closely linked to the structure of the sectors. Moreover, strong seasonality induced CPI volatility from fresh fruits and vegetables are shown to exhibit great uncertainty in monthly terms as well, compared to other product groups. Effects of ignoring this condition in CPI calculation on the cost of living measurement and the monetary policy under inflation targeting framework are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Oguz Atuk & M. Utku Ozmen & Orhun Sevinc, 2012. "Mevsimlik Urunler ve Fiyat Oynakligi : Guclu Mevsimsellik ve Ongorulemeyen Oynaklik," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1216, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:1216
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Tugrul Gurgur & Fethi Ogunc, 2008. "Kuresel Isinma, Kuresellesme ve Gida Krizi - Turkiye'de Islenmis Gida Fiyatlari Uzerine Ampirik Bir Calisma," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 8(2), pages 1-32.
    2. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 209-270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. M. Utku Özmen & Orhun Sevinç, 2016. "Price Rigidity in Turkey: Evidence from Micro Data," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(4), pages 1029-1045, April.
    4. Oguz Atuk & M. Utku Ozmen & Orhun Sevinc, 2013. "Treatment of Seasonal Products and CPI Volatility," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 13(1), pages 51-82.
    5. Fethi Ogunc, 2010. "Turkiye'de Islenmemis Gida Enflasyonunda Oynaklik : Durum Tespiti," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1005, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    6. Oguz Atuk & Orhun Sevinc, 2010. "TUFE'de Sabit ve Degisken Agirlik Sistemi Yaklasimlari: Turkiye Taze Meyve-Sebze Fiyatlari Uzerine Bir Uygulama," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1015, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
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    Cited by:

    1. Oguz Atuk & Fethi Ogunc & M. Utku Ozmen & Cagri Sarikaya, 2013. "Turkiye’de Uretici ve Tuketici Fiyatlari Arasindaki Iliski Uzerine Bir Degerlendirme," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1321, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Oguz Atuk & M. Utku Ozmen & Orhun Sevinc, 2013. "Mevsimlik Urunler ve Fiyat Oynakligi : Mevsimlik Urunlerin Fiyat Endeksine Dahil Edilmesi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1317, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

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