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Beyond Fragmentation: Unraveling the Drivers of Yield Divergence in the euro area

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  • Alicia Aguilar

    (National Bank of Slovakia)

Abstract

This paper provides a novel and high-frequency index of sovereign fragmentation in the euro area. The proposed methodology offers a decomposition of sovereign yields into the common trend, market conditions, and fundamentals-based divergence, which are uncorrelated to fragmentation. Therefore, the fragmentation index constitutes a bottom-line indicator for euro area Central Banks, as measuring disorderly market dynamics in sovereign markets not warranted by fundamentals. In that sense, this paper provides relevant conclusions about the effectiveness of monetary policy interventions, pointing to a significant effect of market stabilization announcements, such as TPI, in reducing sovereign fragmentation. I contribute to the literature as estimating the uncorrelated drivers of euro area yields divergence using a Restricted Principal Components Analysis. The estimated factors are later used to assess the effect of fragmentation, market and fundamentals on country's yields through several economic regimes, pointing to differences across countries and time.

Suggested Citation

  • Alicia Aguilar, 2024. "Beyond Fragmentation: Unraveling the Drivers of Yield Divergence in the euro area," Working and Discussion Papers WP 9/2024, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
  • Handle: RePEc:svk:wpaper:1113
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón & Ramos-Herrera, María del Carmen, 2014. "An update on EMU sovereign yield spread drivers in times of crisis: A panel data analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 133-153.
    2. Altavilla, Carlo & Brugnolini, Luca & Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Motto, Roberto & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2019. "Measuring euro area monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 162-179.
    3. George Hondroyiannis & Dimitrios Papaoikonomou, 2022. "The effect of Eurosystem asset purchase programmes on euro area sovereign bond yields during the COVID-19 pandemic," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(6), pages 2997-3026, December.
    4. Motto, Roberto & Özen, Kadir, 2022. "Market-stabilization QE," Working Paper Series 2640, European Central Bank.
    5. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2022. "The fragility of the Eurozone: Has it disappeared?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    6. Garcia-de-Andoain, Carlos & Hoffmann, Peter & Manganelli, Simone, 2014. "Fragmentation in the Euro overnight unsecured money market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 298-302.
    7. Swanson, Eric T., 2021. "Measuring the effects of federal reserve forward guidance and asset purchases on financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 32-53.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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