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State-dependent inflation expectations and consumption choices

Author

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  • Michal Marencak

    (National Bank of Slovakia)

Abstract

This paper shows that the impact of inflation expectations on consumption depends on prevailing inflation. Beyond the quantitative-qualitative distinction in inflation expectations, differentiating among qualitative expectations of higher, constant, or positive inflation is key. Qualitative expectations have a greater impact on consumption than expected levels and changes in inflation, and the significance of specific qualitative expectations is contingent upon the prevailing inflation conditions. The effect of expecting qualitatively higher inflation on the willingness to consume is more pronounced during periods of inflation surges than in times of low and stable inflation, and is insignificant during periods of decline or deflation. Policy implications are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Marencak, 2023. "State-dependent inflation expectations and consumption choices," Working and Discussion Papers WP 10/2023, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    • Handle: RePEc:svk:wpaper:1102
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    File URL: https://nbs.sk/dokument/c391722a-87ce-470c-abd8-8620eddaca28/stiahnut/?force=false
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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