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A Temporary VAT Cut as Unconventional Fiscal Policy

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  • Bachmann, Rüdiger
  • Born, Benjamin
  • Goldfayn-Frank, Olga
  • Kocharakov, Georgi
  • Luetticke, Ralph
  • Weber, Michael

Abstract

We exploit the unexpected announcement of an immediate, temporary VAT cut in Germany in the second half of 2020 as a natural experiment to study the spending response to unconventional fiscal policy. We use survey and scanner data on households’ consumption expenditures and their perceived pass-through of the tax change into prices to quantify its effects. The temporary VAT cut led to a substantial relative increase in durable spending of 36% for individuals with a high perceived pass-through. Semi- and non-durable spending also increased. According to our preferred estimates, the VAT policy increased aggregate consumption spending by 34 billion Euros.

Suggested Citation

  • Bachmann, Rüdiger & Born, Benjamin & Goldfayn-Frank, Olga & Kocharakov, Georgi & Luetticke, Ralph & Weber, Michael, 2021. "A Temporary VAT Cut as Unconventional Fiscal Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 16690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16690
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    Cited by:

    1. Victoria Baudisch & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2023. "Costly, but (Relatively) Ineffective? An Assessment of Germany’s Temporary VAT Rate Reduction During the Covid-19 Pandemic," Research Papers in Economics 2023-04, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    2. Elisa Guglielminetti & Concetta Rondinelli, 2024. "Macro and Micro Consumption Drivers in the Wake of the COVID-19 Pandemic," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(1), pages 181-237, February.
    3. Lemoine, Matthieu & Lindé, Jesper, 2023. "Fiscal stimulus in liquidity traps: Conventional or unconventional policies?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    4. Koeniger, Winfried & Kress, Peter, 2024. "The Effect of Unconventional Fiscal Policy on Consumption – New Evidence Based on Transactional Data," IZA Discussion Papers 17412, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Michael Weber & Francesco D'Acunto & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2022. "The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 157-184, Summer.
    6. Gregor, Leonard & Haucap, Justus, 2024. "The Rise of Refinery Margins," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302420, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Güntner, Jochen & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik H., 2024. "Sudden stop: Supply and demand shocks in the German natural gas market," Discussion Papers 22/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Fetzer, Thiemo & Shaw, Callum & Edenhofer, Jacob, 2024. "Informational Boundaries of the State," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1487, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    9. Phil Dean & Maclean Gaulin & Nathan Seegert & Mu-Jeung Yang, 2023. "The COVID-19 state sales tax windfall," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(5), pages 1408-1434, October.
    10. Marius Clemens & Werner Röger, 2022. "Durable Consumption, Limited VAT Pass-Through and Stabilization Effects of Temporary VAT Changes," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2004, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Bianchi-Vimercati, Riccardo & Eichenbaum, Martin & Guerreiro, Joao, 2024. "Fiscal stimulus with imperfect expectations: Spending vs. tax policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    12. Francesco D’Acunto & Ulrike Malmendier & Michael Weber, 2022. "What Do the Data Tell Us About Inflation Expectations?," NBER Working Papers 29825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Christian Bayer & Alexander Kriwoluzky & Gernot J. Müller & Fabian Seyrich, 2023. "Hicks in HANK: Fiscal Responses to an Energy Shock," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2056, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    14. Lucas Rosso & Rodrigo Wagner, 2024. "How much does mobility matter for value-added tax revenue? Cross-country evidence around COVID-19," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(3), pages 841-855, June.
    15. Georg Schneider & Frank Stähler & Georg U. Thunecke, 2022. "The (Non-)Neutrality of Value-Added Taxation," CESifo Working Paper Series 9663, CESifo.
    16. Michal Marencak, 2023. "State-dependent inflation expectations and consumption choices," Working and Discussion Papers WP 10/2023, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    17. Baudisch Victoria & Neuenkirch Matthias, 2024. "A Comparative Evaluation of Fiscal Stabilization Strategies during the Covid-19 Pandemic with Germany as a Reference Point," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 29-63.
    18. Liu, Xiufen & Fang, Hongsheng & Zhao, Lexin & Xu, Wenli, 2023. "Do VAT cuts help stabilize employment? Evidence from China’s VAT rate reform," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 190-207.
    19. Fedoseeva, Svetlana & Van Droogenbroeck, Ellen, 2024. "Temporary VAT rate cuts and food prices in e-commerce," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    20. Goldfayn-Frank, Olga & Lewis, Vivien & Wehrhöfer, Nils, 2022. "Spending effects of child-related fiscal transfers," Discussion Papers 26/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unconventional fiscal policy; Value added tax; Survey data; Expectations; Consumption; Household data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

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