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A Temporary VAT Cut as Unconventional Fiscal Policy

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  • Ruediger Bachmann
  • Benjamin Born
  • Olga Goldfayn-Frank
  • Georgi Kocharkov
  • Ralph Luetticke
  • Michael Weber

Abstract

We exploit Germany’s temporary three-percentage-point VAT cut in the second half of 2020 to study the spending response to unconventional fiscal policy. We use survey and scanner data on household consumption expenditures and their perceived pass-through of the tax change into prices and a HANK model to quantify the effects of this VAT policy. The survey and scanner data show that the temporary VAT reduction led to a relative increase in durable and, to a lesser extent, semi-durable spending for individuals with high perceived pass-through. According to the HANK model, the VAT policy increased total aggregate consumption spending by 4.3 percent on impact.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruediger Bachmann & Benjamin Born & Olga Goldfayn-Frank & Georgi Kocharkov & Ralph Luetticke & Michael Weber, 2021. "A Temporary VAT Cut as Unconventional Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 29442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29442
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    Cited by:

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    2. Lemoine, Matthieu & Lindé, Jesper, 2023. "Fiscal stimulus in liquidity traps: Conventional or unconventional policies?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    3. Winfried Koeniger & Peter Kress, 2024. "The Effect of Unconventional Fiscal Policy on Consumption -New Evidence based on Transactional Data," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 24-58, Swiss Finance Institute.
    4. Michael Weber & Francesco D'Acunto & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2022. "The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 157-184, Summer.
    5. Gregor, Leonard & Haucap, Justus, 2024. "The Rise of Refinery Margins," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302420, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Jochen Güntner & Magnus Reif & Maik Wolters, 2024. "Sudden stop: Supply and demand shocks in the German natural gas market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1282-1300, November.
    7. Bianchi-Vimercati, Riccardo & Eichenbaum, Martin & Guerreiro, Joao, 2024. "Fiscal stimulus with imperfect expectations: Spending vs. tax policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    8. Francesco D’Acunto & Ulrike Malmendier & Michael Weber, 2022. "What Do the Data Tell Us About Inflation Expectations?," NBER Working Papers 29825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Christian Bayer & Alexander Kriwoluzky & Gernot J. Müller & Fabian Seyrich, 2023. "Hicks in HANK: Fiscal Responses to an Energy Shock," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2056, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Georg Schneider & Frank Stähler & Georg U. Thunecke, 2022. "The (Non-)Neutrality of Value-Added Taxation," CESifo Working Paper Series 9663, CESifo.
    11. Michal Marencak, 2023. "State-dependent inflation expectations and consumption choices," Working and Discussion Papers WP 10/2023, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    12. Thiemo Fetzer & Callum Shaw & Jacob Edenhofer, 2024. "Informational Boundaries of the State," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 282, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    13. Liu, Xiufen & Fang, Hongsheng & Zhao, Lexin & Xu, Wenli, 2023. "Do VAT cuts help stabilize employment? Evidence from China’s VAT rate reform," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 190-207.
    14. Schnorpfeil, Philip & Weber, Michael & Hackethal, Andreas, 2024. "Households' response to the wealth effects of inflation," CFS Working Paper Series 728, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    15. Goldfayn-Frank, Olga & Lewis, Vivien & Wehrhöfer, Nils, 2022. "Spending effects of child-related fiscal transfers," Discussion Papers 26/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Elisa Guglielminetti & Concetta Rondinelli, 2024. "Macro and Micro Consumption Drivers in the Wake of the COVID-19 Pandemic," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(1), pages 181-237, February.
    17. Phil Dean & Maclean Gaulin & Nathan Seegert & Mu-Jeung Yang, 2023. "The COVID-19 state sales tax windfall," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(5), pages 1408-1434, October.
    18. Marius Clemens & Werner Röger, 2022. "Durable Consumption, Limited VAT Pass-Through and Stabilization Effects of Temporary VAT Changes," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2004, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    19. Lucas Rosso & Rodrigo Wagner, 2024. "How much does mobility matter for value-added tax revenue? Cross-country evidence around COVID-19," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(3), pages 841-855, June.
    20. Baudisch Victoria & Neuenkirch Matthias, 2024. "A Comparative Evaluation of Fiscal Stabilization Strategies during the Covid-19 Pandemic with Germany as a Reference Point," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 29-63.
    21. Fedoseeva, Svetlana & Van Droogenbroeck, Ellen, 2024. "Temporary VAT rate cuts and food prices in e-commerce," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

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