IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/str/wpaper/1904.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Terrorism, education and the role of expectations: evidence from al-Shabaab attacks in Kenya

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Alfano

    (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)

  • Joseph-Simon Gorlach

    (Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration, University College London)

Abstract

This paper explores how terrorism alters human capital investment by affecting expectations. Using different estimators, we identify a negative causal effect of terrorism on Kenyan primary school enrolment and attendance. Among these, we exploit al-Shabaab's revenue streams and position in the al-Qaeda network to predict attacks. To isolate the significant contribution of indirect mechanisms|like expectation we use fi nely geo-coded data on children and their closest schools as well as border discontinuities in educational provision, combined with media and attitudinal data. Moreover, we evaluate the degree and effect of the discrepancy between objective and subjective expectations in a structural model.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Alfano & Joseph-Simon Gorlach, 2019. "Terrorism, education and the role of expectations: evidence from al-Shabaab attacks in Kenya," Working Papers 1904, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:str:wpaper:1904
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.strath.ac.uk/media/1newwebsite/departmentsubject/economics/research/researchdiscussionpapers/19-04.pdf.pagespeed.ce.ujXV9ES0rU.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
    2. Antonio Ciccone, 2018. "International Commodity Prices and Civil War Outbreak: New Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa and Beyond," Working Papers 1016, Barcelona School of Economics.
    3. Stelios Michalopoulos & Elias Papaioannou, 2016. "The Long-Run Effects of the Scramble for Africa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1802-1848, July.
    4. Bertoni, Eleonora & Di Maio, Michele & Molini, Vasco & Nisticò, Roberto, 2019. "Education is forbidden: The effect of the Boko Haram conflict on education in North-East Nigeria," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    5. Khan, Sarah & Seltzer, Andrew, 2016. "The Impact of Fundamentalist Terrorism on School Enrolment: Evidence from North-Western Pakistan, 2004-09," IZA Discussion Papers 10168, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Nicola Limodio, 2022. "Terrorism Financing, Recruitment, and Attacks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1711-1742, July.
    7. Oeindrila Dube & Juan F. Vargas, 2013. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1384-1421.
    8. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    9. Joana Monteiro & Rudi Rocha, 2017. "Drug Battles and School Achievement: Evidence from Rio de Janeiro's Favelas," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 213-228, May.
    10. Samuel Bazzi & Christopher Blattman, 2014. "Economic Shocks and Conflict: Evidence from Commodity Prices," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 1-38, October.
    11. Nicolas Berman & Mathieu Couttenier & Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig, 2017. "This Mine Is Mine! How Minerals Fuel Conflicts in Africa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(6), pages 1564-1610, June.
    12. Mevlude Akbulut-Yuksel, 2014. "Children of War: The Long-Run Effects of Large-Scale Physical Destruction and Warfare on Children," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 49(3), pages 634-662.
    13. Teodora Boneva & Christopher Rauh, 2018. "Parental Beliefs about Returns to Educational Investments—The Later the Better?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(6), pages 1669-1711.
    14. Alan B. Krueger & Jitka Maleckova, 2003. "Education, Poverty and Terrorism: Is There a Causal Connection?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
    15. Rehman, Faiz Ur & Vanin, Paolo, 2017. "Terrorism risk and democratic preferences in Pakistan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 95-106.
    16. Singh, Prakarsh & Shemyakina, Olga N., 2016. "Gender-differential effects of terrorism on education: The case of the 1981–1993 Punjab insurgency," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 185-210.
    17. Hartog, Joop & Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2014. "Schooling as a Risky Investment: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Foundations and Trends(R) in Microeconomics, now publishers, vol. 9(3-4), pages 159-331, February.
    18. Orazio Attanasio & Teodora Boneva & Christopher Rauh, 2022. "Parental Beliefs about Returns to Different Types of Investments in School Children," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(6), pages 1789-1825.
    19. Pamela Giustinelli & Charles F. Manski, 2018. "Survey Measures Of Family Decision Processes For Econometric Analysis Of Schooling Decisions," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 81-99, January.
    20. Francesco Amodio & Giorgio Chiovelli, 2018. "Ethnicity and Violence During Democratic Transitions: Evidence from South Africa," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 1234-1280.
    21. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1996. "Eliciting Student Expectations of the Returns to Schooling," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 31(1), pages 1-26.
    22. Adeline Delavande & Jinkook Lee & Seetha Menon, 2017. "Eliciting Survival Expectations of the Elderly in Low-Income Countries: Evidence From India," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(2), pages 673-699, April.
    23. Patricia Justino & Marinella Leone & Paola Salardi, 2014. "Short- and Long-Term Impact of Violence on Education: The Case of Timor Leste," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 28(2), pages 320-353.
    24. Conley, T. G., 1999. "GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-45, September.
    25. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
    26. Robert Jensen, 2010. "The (Perceived) Returns to Education and the Demand for Schooling," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(2), pages 515-548.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Besley, Timothy & Fetzer, Thiemo & Mueller, Hannes, 2023. "How Big is the Media Multiplier? Evidence from Dyadic News Data," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 692, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    2. Ze Chen & Yuan Wang & Yanjun Guan & Michael Jie Guo & Rong Xu, 2023. "Long‐term effect of childhood pandemic experience on medical major choice: Evidence from the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak in China," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 1120-1147, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stoop, Nik & Verpoorten, Marijke & van der Windt, Peter, 2019. "Artisanal or industrial conflict minerals? Evidence from Eastern Congo," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 660-674.
    2. Marco Alfano & Joseph‐Simon Görlach, 2024. "Terrorism and education: Evidence from instrumental variables estimators," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 906-925, August.
    3. Dominic Rohner, 2022. "Conflict, Civil Wars and Human Development," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 22.08, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    4. Mounu Prem & Juan F. Vargas & Olga Namen, 2023. "The Human Capital Peace Dividend," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(3), pages 962-1002.
    5. Nicolas Berman & Mathieu Couttenier & Raphael Soubeyran, 2021. "Fertile Ground for Conflict," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 82-127.
    6. Sunde, Uwe & Cervellati, Matteo & Esposito, Elena & Valmori, Simona, 2016. "Malaria Risk and Civil Violence," CEPR Discussion Papers 11496, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Arinze Nwokolo, 2018. "Oil Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Nigeria," HiCN Working Papers 274, Households in Conflict Network.
    8. Francesco Amodio & Leonardo Baccini & Michele Di Maio, 2021. "Security, Trade, and Political Violence," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 1-37.
    9. Martin Philipp Heger & Eric Neumayer, 2022. "Economic legacy effects of armed conflict: Insights from the civil war in Aceh, Indonesia," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 39(4), pages 394-421, July.
    10. Verme, Paolo & Schuettler, Kirsten, 2021. "The impact of forced displacement on host communities: A review of the empirical literature in economics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    11. Eoin McGuirk & Marshall Burke, 2020. "The Economic Origins of Conflict in Africa," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(10), pages 3940-3997.
    12. Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig, 2021. "The Elusive Peace Dividend of Development Policy: From War Traps to Macro Complementarities," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 111-131, August.
    13. Michael D. König & Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2017. "Networks in Conflict: Theory and Evidence From the Great War of Africa," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 1093-1132, July.
    14. Lax-Martinez, Gema & Rohner, Dominic & Saia, Alessandro, 2022. "Threat of taxation, stagnation and social unrest: Evidence from 19th century sicily," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 361-371.
    15. Berlanda, Andrea & Cervellati, Matteo & Esposito, Elena & Rohner, Dominic & Sunde, Uwe, 2024. "Medication against conflict," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    16. Tommaso Sonno, 2020. "Globalization and conflicts: the good, the bad and the ugly of corporations in Africa," CEP Discussion Papers dp1670, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    17. Manotas-Hidalgo, Beatriz & Pérez-Sebastián, Fidel & Campo-Bescós, Miguel Angel, 2021. "The role of ethnic characteristics in the effect of income shocks on African conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    18. Gehring, Kai & Langlotz, Sarah & Kienberger, Stefan, 2018. "Stimulant or depressant? Resource-related income shocks and conflict," Working Papers 0652, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    19. Camille Laville, 2018. "The econometrical causal analysis of internal conflicts: The evolutions of a growing literature [L’analyse économétrique des conflits internes par l’approche causale : les évolutions d’une littérat," Working Papers hal-01940461, HAL.
    20. Lu, Yifan & Yamazaki, Satoshi, 2023. "Fish to fight: Does catching more fish increase conflicts in Indonesia?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    terrorism; education; expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:str:wpaper:1904. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirsty Hall (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/edstruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.