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Combining CGE and microsimulation models: Effects on equality of VAT reforms

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The effects on the degree of equality of reforms in indirect taxation are analysed by using a microsimulation model of the Norwegian economy subsequent to a CGE model. The two main reforms studied are substitution of a uniform VAT rate on all goods and services and substitution of the non-uniform Norwegian VAT reform of 2001 for the previous, differentiated system. A main characteristic of the non-uniform reform is the halving of the VAT rate on food. All reforms are made public revenue neutral by changes in the VAT rate. Producer prices, pre-tax nominal incomes, wealth and transfers are all exogenous in the microsimulation model. In this paper we feed percentage changes in corresponding variables from the CGE model into the microsimulation model in order to enrich the microsimulation analyses. The non-uniform VAT reform leads to a clear increase in equality while the change in equality concerning the uniform reform is close to 0. With the uniform VAT reform, as opposed to the non-uniform, decompositions show that taking CGE effects into account has a large impact on the degree of equality. Changed producer prices and changed pre-tax nominal incomes, wealth and transfers both contribute to this.

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  • Turid Åvitsland & Jørgen Aasness, 2004. "Combining CGE and microsimulation models: Effects on equality of VAT reforms," Discussion Papers 392, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:392
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    1. Behrman, Jere R., 2009. "Analyzing the Distributional Impact of Reforms, Volume Two: A Practitioner's Guide to Pension, Health, Labor Market, Public Sector Downsizing, Taxation, Decentralization, and Macroeconomic Modeling. A," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(3), pages 396-397, July.
    2. SIMIONESCU, Mihaela, 2015. "Modelling And Predicting The Indirect Taxes In Romania," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 19(2), pages 67-77.
    3. Andrew Feltenstein & Luciana Lopes & Janet Porras Mendoza & Sally Wallace, 2013. "“The Impact of Micro-simulation and CGE modeling on Tax Reform and Tax Advice in Developing Countries”: A Survey of Alternative Approaches and an Application to Pakistan," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper1309, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    4. Lemelin, André & Savard, Luc, 2022. "What do CGE models have to say about fiscal reform?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 758-774.
    5. Ali Bayar & Barbara Bratta & Silvia Carta & Paolo Di Caro & Marco Manzo & Carlo Orecchia, 2021. "Assessing the effects of VAT policies with an integrated CGE-microsimulation approach: evidence on Italy," Working Papers wp2021-14, Ministry of Economy and Finance, Department of Finance.
    6. Andrew Feltenstein & Luciana Lopes & Janet Porras-Mendoza & Sally Wallace, 2014. "Modeling tax reform in developing countries," Chapters, in: Richard M. Bird & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez (ed.), Taxation and Development: The Weakest Link?, chapter 3, pages 69-102, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Labandeira, Xavier & Labeaga, José M. & Rodríguez, Miguel, 2009. "An integrated economic and distributional analysis of energy policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5776-5786, December.
    8. Stefan Boeters & Christoph Bohringer & Thiess Buttner & Margit Kraus, 2010. "Economic effects of VAT reforms in Germany," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(17), pages 2165-2182.
    9. Aline Coudouel & Stefano Paternostro, 2006. "Analyzing the Distributional Impact of Reforms : A Practitioner’s Guide to Pension, Health, Labor Markets, Public Sector Downsizing, Taxation, Decentralization, and Macroeconomic Modeling, Volume 2," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7041.
    10. Bouët, Antoine & Estrades, Carmen & Laborde, David, 2012. "Cooperation vs. non cooperation in the multilateral trading system: the impact on poverty and inequality in developing countries," Conference papers 332287, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    11. Botero García, Jesús Alonso & Correa Giraldo, Manuel, 2016. "Fiscal Policy and Inequality in a CGE Model for Colombia," Conference papers 332811, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    12. Brita Bye & Birger Strøm & Turid Åvitsland, 2012. "Welfare effects of VAT reforms: a general equilibrium analysis," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(3), pages 368-392, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CGE and microsimulation models; Macro-micro links; Indirect taxation; VAT reforms; Equality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D3 - Microeconomics - - Distribution
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

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