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Resolving a Non-Performing Loan crisis: the ongoing case of the Irish mortgage market

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  • McCann, Fergal

Abstract

The Irish banking system has in recent years experienced a large build-up in Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) during the crisis followed by a sharp reduction in the 2013-2017 period. In this article I present a recent history of the ongoing resolution of the mortgage arrears crisis in Ireland. Using a large and close to exhaustive panel data set of Irish mortgages from 2008 to 2016, I present a number of new findings on loan transitions between delinquency states, the importance of legacy effects of the crisis in explaining recent entry to arrears, the role of mortgage modification in the reduction in arrears balances, the extent of borrower-lender engagement and the financial vulnerability that remains in pockets of the Irish mortgage market. JEL Classification: G01, G21

Suggested Citation

  • McCann, Fergal, 2018. "Resolving a Non-Performing Loan crisis: the ongoing case of the Irish mortgage market," ESRB Working Paper Series 71, European Systemic Risk Board.
    • Handle: RePEc:srk:srkwps:201871
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kelly, Robert & McCann, Fergal, 2015. "Households in long-term mortgage arrears:lessons from economic research," Economic Letters 11/EL/15, Central Bank of Ireland.
    2. Agarwal, Sumit & Amromin, Gene & Ben-David, Itzhak & Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Evanoff, Douglas D., 2011. "The role of securitization in mortgage renegotiation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 559-578.
    3. Sumit Agarwal & Gene Amromin & Itzhak Ben-David & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru, 2017. "Policy Intervention in Debt Renegotiation: Evidence from the Home Affordable Modification Program," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(3), pages 654-712.
    4. McGuinness, Anne, 2014. "Mortgage Repayments after Permanent Modification," Economic Letters 07/EL/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    5. McCarthy, Yvonne, 2014. "Dis-entangling the mortgage arrears crisis: The rolw of the labour market, income volatility and housing equity," Research Technical Papers 02/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    6. Christopher Mayer & Edward Morrison & Tomasz Piskorski & Arpit Gupta, 2014. "Mortgage Modification and Strategic Behavior: Evidence from a Legal Settlement with Countrywide," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(9), pages 2830-2857, September.
    7. Mr. Jochen R. Andritzky, 2014. "Resolving Residential Mortgage Distress: Time to Modify?," IMF Working Papers 2014/226, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Kelly, Robert & O’Malley, Terence, 2016. "The good, the bad and the impaired: A credit risk model of the Irish mortgage market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 1-9.
    9. Adelino, Manuel & Gerardi, Kristopher & Willen, Paul S., 2013. "Why don't Lenders renegotiate more home mortgages? Redefaults, self-cures and securitization," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 835-853.
    10. David Byrne & Robert Kelly & Conor O'Toole, 2022. "How Does Monetary Policy Pass‐Through Affect Mortgage Default? Evidence from the Irish Mortgage Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(7), pages 2081-2101, October.
    11. Danne, Christian & McGuinness, Anne, 2016. "Mortgage modifications and loan performance," Research Technical Papers 05/RT/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
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    Cited by:

    1. O’Toole, Conor & Slaymaker, Rachel, 2021. "Repayment capacity, debt service ratios and mortgage default: An exploration in crisis and non-crisis periods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    borrower engagement; loan transitions; mortgage modification; mortgages; Non-Performing Loans;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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