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Regional Transfer Multipliers

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  • Raphael Corbi
  • Elias Papaioannou, Paolo Surico

Abstract

A series of discontinuities in the allocation mechanism of federal transfers to municipal governments in Brazil allow us to identify the causal effect of public spending on local labor markets, using a ‘fuzzy’ Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD). Our estimates imply a cost per job of about 8,000 US dollars per year and a local income multiplier around two. The effect comes mostly from employment in the retail, education and services sectors and is more pronounced among smaller municipalities in the North, with lower income and lower bank penetration.

Suggested Citation

  • Raphael Corbi & Elias Papaioannou, Paolo Surico, 2018. "Regional Transfer Multipliers," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2018_12, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    • Handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2018wpecon12
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    natural experiment; ‘fuzzy’ RD; government spending; employment; wages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation

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