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O FPM e a Estranha Distribuição da População dos Pequenos Municípios Brasileiros

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  • Leonardo Monasterio

Abstract

Os dados populacionais dos pequenos municípios brasileiros foram influenciados pelas faixas discretas do critério de repartição do Fundo de Participação dos Municípios (FPM). O trabalho aplica o teste de manipulação de variável em regressões com descontinuidade (McCrary, 2008) aos dados de população municipal brasileiros. Revela-se que a distorção ocorreu em outros censos e contagens populacionais e tem se tornado mais grave com o passar do tempo. No Censo Demográfico 2010, do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE), estimou-se que 192 municípios dos 3.565 examinados foram mal classificados, gerando-se distorção anual da ordem de mais de R$ 200 milhões no ano. The distribution criterion of the Municipal Participation Fund (Fundo de Participação dos Municípios) has biased the population data for small Brazilian municipalities.The paper applies the test for manipulation of the running variable in discontinuity regression (McCrary, 2008) to Brazilian municipalities’ data. It shows that previous censuses suffered the same distortion and it is getting worse. For the 2010 Census the paper estimates that 192 out of the 3565 municipalities were misclassified, generating na misallocation of more than US$100 million in 2010 in that year.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonardo Monasterio, 2013. "O FPM e a Estranha Distribuição da População dos Pequenos Municípios Brasileiros," Discussion Papers 1818, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1818
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    Cited by:

    1. Raphael Corbi & Elias Papaioannou & Paolo Surico, 2019. "Regional Transfer Multipliers," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(5), pages 1901-1934.
    2. Lucie Gadenne, 2017. "Tax Me, but Spend Wisely? Sources of Public Finance and Government Accountability," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 274-314, January.
    3. Fabio Nishimura & Breno Sampaio, 2016. "Efeito Da Habitação Sobre A Mortalidade Infantil: Evidências De Um Desenho De Regressão Descontínua," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 198, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

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