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Fiscal policy and economic activity: New Causal Evidence

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  • David M. Brasington
  • Marios Zachariadis

Abstract

We identify an exogenous cut in local taxes accompanied by an equivalent reduction in local government spending, and estimate the impact of these exogenous changes on income by applying a novel regression discontinuity design. This exploits a unique regional dataset that combines local income data with local voting outcomes on renewals of current expense tax levies. We find that balanced budget reductions in taxes and spending cause a large drop in local incomes, suggesting that government expenditure effects on income are larger than fiscal revenue effects. Importantly, this effect of local tax-financed government spending is prominent in low-income areas. Overall, our results regarding the effect of locally tax-financed government spending on income are suggestive of the importance of mechanisms related to the prevalence of liquidity constrained agents.

Suggested Citation

  • David M. Brasington & Marios Zachariadis, 2022. "Fiscal policy and economic activity: New Causal Evidence," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 09-2022, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucy:cypeua:09-2022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Balanced budget; government spending; tax levies; exogenous variation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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