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Real exchange rate persistence: The case of the Swiss franc-US dollar rate

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  • Katarina Juselius
  • Katrin Assenmacher

Abstract

Asset prices tend to undergo wide swings around long-run equilibrium values, which can have detrimental effects on the real economy. To get a better understanding of how the financial sector and the real economy interact, this paper models the long swings in the Swiss franc-US dollar foreign currency market using the I(2) Cointegrated VAR model. The results show strong evidence of self-reinforcing feedback mechanisms in the Swiss-US foreign exchange market that are consistent with the observed pronounced persistence in Swiss-US parity conditions. Generally, the results provide support for models allowing expectations formation in financial markets to be based on imperfect information.

Suggested Citation

  • Katarina Juselius & Katrin Assenmacher, 2015. "Real exchange rate persistence: The case of the Swiss franc-US dollar rate," Working Papers 2015-03, Swiss National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2015-03
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert, 2011. "Internal rationality, imperfect market knowledge and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1224-1252, May.
    2. Mikhail Anufriev & Cars Hommes & Raoul Philipse, 2013. "Evolutionary selection of expectations in positive and negative feedback markets," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 663-688, July.
    3. Nielsen, Heino Bohn & Rahbek, Anders, 2007. "The Likelihood Ratio Test For Cointegration Ranks In The I(2) Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 615-637, August.
    4. Roman Frydman & Michael D. Goldberg, 2013. "Change and expectations in macroeconomic models: recognizing the limits to knowability," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 118-138, June.
    5. Hommes, Cars & Huang, Hai & Wang, Duo, 2005. "A robust rational route to randomness in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1043-1072, June.
    6. Paruolo, Paolo & Rahbek, Anders, 1999. "Weak exogeneity in I(2) VAR systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 281-308, December.
    7. Cars Hommes, 2013. "Reflexivity, expectations feedback and almost self-fulfilling equilibria: economic theory, empirical evidence and laboratory experiments," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 406-419, December.
    8. Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2005. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 955-980.
    9. Heemeijer, Peter & Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2009. "Price stability and volatility in markets with positive and negative expectations feedback: An experimental investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1052-1072, May.
    10. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    11. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina & Frydman, Roman & Goldberg, Michael, 2010. "Testing hypotheses in an I(2) model with piecewise linear trends. An analysis of the persistent long swings in the Dmk/$ rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 117-129, September.
    12. Hommes, C.H., 2005. "Heterogeneous Agents Models: two simple examples, forthcoming In: Lines, M. (ed.) Nonlinear Dynamical Systems in Economics, CISM Courses and Lectures, Springer, 2005, pp.131-164," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    13. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679.
    14. Johansen, Søren, 1992. "A Representation of Vector Autoregressive Processes Integrated of Order 2," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 188-202, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. H. Peter Boswijk & Paolo Paruolo, 2017. "Likelihood Ratio Tests of Restrictions on Common Trends Loading Matrices in I(2) VAR Systems," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-17, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long swings; Imperfect Knowledge; I(2) analysis; Self-reinforcing feed-back;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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