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A CVAR scenario for a standard monetary model using theory-consistent expectations

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  • Katarina Juselius

    (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

Abstract

A theory-consistent CVAR scenario describes a set of testable regularities capturing basic assumptions of the theoretical model. Using this concept, the paper considers a standard model for exchange rate determination and shows that all assumptions about the model?s shock structure and steady-state behavior can be formulated as testable hypotheses on common stochastic trends and cointegration. While the scenario was rejected on essentially all counts, the results were informative about the cause of the empirical failure. It was the stationarity assumptions that were too restrictive to explain the long persistent swings in the real exchange rate and the interest rate differential.

Suggested Citation

  • Katarina Juselius, 2017. "A CVAR scenario for a standard monetary model using theory-consistent expectations," Discussion Papers 17-08, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:1708
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hoover, Kevin & Juselius, Katarina, 2015. "Trygve Haavelmo’S Experimental Methodology And Scenario Analysis In A Cointegrated Vector Autoregression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(2), pages 249-274, April.
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    11. Katarina Juselius, 2017. "Using a Theory-Consistent CVAR Scenario to Test an Exchange Rate Model Based on Imperfect Knowledge," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-20, July.
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    17. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina & Frydman, Roman & Goldberg, Michael, 2010. "Testing hypotheses in an I(2) model with piecewise linear trends. An analysis of the persistent long swings in the Dmk/$ rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 117-129, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Goldberg & Olesia Kozlova & Deniz Ozabaci, 2020. "Forward Rate Bias in Developed and Developing Countries: More Risky Not Less Rational," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-26, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Theory-Consistent CVAR; Expectations; International Puzzles; Long Swings; Persistence; Imperfect Knowledge;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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